Avbe100

ts03425549 發表於 2014-7-21 13:02
96W  窩度這6小時+深明顯 以泛紅摟

以現時的情況，大家覺得96W何時會接近台灣呢？謝謝。

Meow

可以命名了，STS！:lol

J18

這路徑長得滿像2012年杰拉華
下周關注焦點!

uodam64402

Meow 發表於 2014-7-21 22:45
可以命名了，STS！

應該只是因為對流很強，造成該處平均風偏強，以下這圖是ASCAT(METOP_A)衛星，於臺灣時間2014年7月21日21:19所掃得的風場。這圖就沒有看到有50KT以上的風場旗，不過局部有30KT是可以肯定的，這樣明天早上JTWC應該可以發出TCFA警告了；同時至少日本可以發W。


至於第三、第四象限風力弱的主要原因是，現在西南季風有大部分都去支援10W的增強與環流擴大，而使96W只有受到副熱帶高壓的東風，以及其中一支由西北向東南流下來的西南季風所匯流，第四象限根本沒有什麼背景風場加持，待10W移到臺灣附近甚至以北，此時西南季風才會去支援96W，四周風場才會有所增強。

sh991016

晚間針對96w發出TCFA!!!
WTPN21 PGTW 211700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
210 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.2N 143.8E TO 11.4N 137.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
211132Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N
142.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.3N
143.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 142.4E, APPROXIMATELY 143 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS CONSOLIDATING DEEP CENTRALIZED CONVECTION OVER AN ELONGATED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT 211128Z ASCAT PASS
SHOWS THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LLCC, WITH
CORE WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS. THERE ARE ALSO STRONGER GRADIENT WINDS
FURTHER TO THE NORTH, AWAY FROM THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR WESTWARD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. DUE TO THE DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION AND IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
221700Z.//

Wayne

GFS的預報，96W是走東部外海北上

不過EC和GFS先前都有出現二連擊的預測

大家注意小麥的同時可以盯一下這個96W

Meow

本來就不看好的 JMA 認定此 TD 已消散。

開梅

我還以為他會是個準哈隆，觀察那麼多天，還是快消散了，好像跟在較大颱風後面的系統，發展成颱風，會受到偏南氣流而北上，如1990年柔拉颱風，要不然發展成輕颱下限，很快就被前面的大颱風吃掉，如1987艾德被黛納，1998年亞力士被瑞伯吃掉