THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 139.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 138.5E, APPROXIMATELY 56 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS TRACKING WESTWARD. THE MSI LOOP ALSO SHOWS THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATES HIGHER WINDS (15-20 KNOTS) ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS AND LARGELY RAIN-FLAGGED; A WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH SHOWS 5-15 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE EASTERLY (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CAUSING THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE LLCC. NUMERIC MODELS HAVE SCALED DOWN THE FORECAST INTENSITIES ON THIS SYSTEM TO BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
不過呢，......
TPPN11 PGTW 200622
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98W (NE OF PALAU)
B. 20/0532Z
C. XX.X
D. XXX.X
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR H. REMARKS: 70/POSITION OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COULD
NOT BE FOUND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
BERMEA
取消評級
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.4N
138.5E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
