98W 近乎消散瀕臨撤編

甜心 · 2014-4-16 17:49

從今天的雲圖可發現過去一天98w低氣壓變胖了組織擴充不少，不過由下列雲圖/水氣圖也能發現它目前處於極度裸奔中心雲系完全沒有集中的狀況。

you · 2014-4-16 19:02

他中心的雲帶充滿水氣，所以難以定位。他今天整天都裸露…不知現在是否對流爆發。

you · 2014-4-16 19:34

他的路徑未來會向東北方移動，如果GFS預報準確，發展就值得關注了。不過現在發展機會眇亡，結構很差。加上只有GFS看重98w。

you · 2014-4-16 21:20

現在連路徑定位也有分歧，98w帶來的麻煩也不少。

you · 2014-4-16 21:39

本帖最後由 you 於 2014-4-16 22:13 編輯

開始看見他有疑似對流爆發的跡象。
1.對流加速
2.中心有雲帶相繼爆發

you · 2014-4-16 22:22

根據GFS的圖表，分析出:98w可能成為第一個吹襲台灣的颱風，不過變數很大。現在連能不能生成也不知。

t02436 · 2014-4-16 22:23

對流爆出加報評級Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS
PERSISTED NEAR 9.5N 149.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 365 NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN
AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS FORMATIVE, ALBEIT
FRAGMENTED, BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN FLANKS. AN ARC OF
DEEP CONVECTION IS ALSO EVIDENT ON A
161022Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
DISTURBANCE IS 05 DEGREES SOUTH
OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
(15-20 KNOT) EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE EIR LOOP
ALSO SHOWS A GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION. NUMERIC MODELS DO NOT
PREDICT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AT THIS
TIME. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

jick810530 · 2014-4-17 16:07

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 149.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 148.8E, APPROXIMATELY 310 NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED, ALTHOUGH FULLY EXPOSED, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK. A 162345Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE ADDITIONALLY SHOWS THE DEFINED NATURE OF THE LOW LEVELS ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IS POOR. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POOR ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAKLY DIFFLUENT EASTERLY OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. NUMERIC MODELS DO NOT DEPICT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS BUT DUE TO THE DEFINED NATURE OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM
老J升格為Medium囉