簽到天數: 815 天 [LV.10]以壇為家III
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martin191919|2014-4-20 00:47
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JTWC:MEDIUM
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.8N
143.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 139.9E, APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
NORTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS FLARING AHEAD OF A WEAK, EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS TRACKING WESTWARD NEAR THE
ISLAND OF YAP. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS THIS LLCC HAS MOVED CLOSER TO
THE DEEP CONVECTION. A PAIR OF RECENT ASCAT SWATHS JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE SYSTEM INDICATE HIGHER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND LARGELY RAIN-FLAGGED, WITH 5-15 KNOT
WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CAUSING THE
DISPLACEMENT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE LLCC, AND WEAK POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATION FROM YAP INDICATES VARIABLE
WINDS AT 4 KNOTS SUSTAINED. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WINDS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED AS HIGH AS 12 KNOTS GUSTING TO 22 KNOTS. DYNAMICAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE INCREASINGLY SHIFTED TOWARD DEVELOPING THIS
DISTURBANCE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THE LLCC TO BECOME COUPLED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION,
AND TC GENESIS INDICATIONS IN THE MODELS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM. |
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