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krichard2011|2014-4-5 21:37
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顯示全部樓層
補上報文
文中提到這系統目前處在環境良好的區域
不過文中也提到這系統
下星期一的時間點會有較強風切
可能會暫時抑制發展或短暫消弱強度
能增強到什麼地步 就看他自己囉...
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1317 UTC 05/04/2014
Name: Tropical Cyclone Ita
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 12.0S
Longitude: 155.8E
Location Accuracy: within 50 nm [95 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [244 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [5 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 997 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 140 nm [260 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 05/1800: 12.1S 155.3E: 070 [135]: 055 [100]: 986
+12: 06/0000: 12.3S 154.9E: 085 [155]: 060 [110]: 982
+18: 06/0600: 12.5S 154.6E: 095 [180]: 060 [110]: 980
+24: 06/1200: 12.6S 154.4E: 110 [200]: 060 [110]: 980
+36: 07/0000: 12.8S 153.9E: 120 [220]: 070 [125]: 975
+48: 07/1200: 12.7S 153.4E: 140 [260]: 080 [145]: 966
+60: 08/0000: 12.7S 152.9E: 160 [295]: 085 [155]: 960
+72: 08/1200: 12.5S 152.1E: 180 [335]: 085 [155]: 958
+96: 09/1200: 12.7S 149.7E: 230 [430]: 090 [165]: 957
+120: 10/1200: 13.7S 147.5E: 320 [590]: 090 [165]: 956
REMARKS:
The Dvorak analysis of Tropical Cyclone Ita was based on a curved band pattern
with a 0.65 degree wrap with an added 0.5 for white band, giving a DT of 3.5.
MET and PAT both give 3.0. FT was based on MET as DT was not completely clear.
Tropical Cyclone Ita has developed gradually over the last 24 hours, though
convection has remained quite deep with very cold cloud top temperatures over
much of this period. The ascending ASCAT-B image at 1045UTC indicated that gales
extend out to approximately 120 nautical miles to the east and south of systems
centre.
Tropical Cyclone Ita is currently moving slowly in a westwards direction under
the the influence of a mid-level ridge extending across the central Coral Sea.
Ita should continue moving in a general westwards direction over the next few
days under the influence of a couple of mid-level ridges that develop across the
Coral Sea. However, a mid-level trough moving across eastern Australia on Sunday
should move into the Coral Sea by Monday and may temporarily halt the westwards
progression on the system for a period.
Tropical Cyclone Ita is in a favourable environment for further development with
low vertical wind shear and sea surface temperatures greater than 27 degrees
along most of its forecast track. However, the system may encounter some
increased vertical wind shear on Monday depending on the strength of the
mid-level trough that is expected to move across the Coral Sea, which may limit
or could even temporarily weaken the system on this day.
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