SHYUDOL

  五級熱帶氣旋  
   編號  ：15 U ( 23 P )  
   名稱  ：Ita
  基本資料  
   擾動編號日期：2014 年 04 月 01 日 04  時
   命名日期　　：2014 年 04 月 05 日 21 時
   消散日期　　：2014 年 04 月 16 日
   登陸地點　　：澳大利亞 昆士蘭 法拉特理角

  巔峰時期資料  
　近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
   美國海軍 (JTWC)  ： 135  kts  (   CAT 4   )                              
   澳洲氣象局 (BOM)： 115  kts  (   CAT 5   )
   海平面最低氣壓     ： 930 百帕

  過去路徑圖  
暫無
  討論帖圖片  
97P.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.5.8S.160.9E

以上資料來自 : JTWC、BOM、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436

評級Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.9S 158.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 90 NM NORTHWEST OF BUALA, SANTA ISABEL, SOLOMON
ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD, ILL-DEFINED LLCC. A 312333Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM HONIARA SHOW 05 TO 10 KNOT NORTH-EASTERLY
WINDS WITH SLP NEAR 1006 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

甜心

呵呵南太又一隻低壓寶寶誕生了97p今天一次評級兩隻不過這隻前幾天人家我一度還以為它是一片對流雲系而已呢目前螺旋已現但結構鬆散，這隻還特別剛編號評級Low沒多久就已經在侵襲列島當地南太氣象站方面認為要等到出海後才會有比較多的發展機會。

t02436

升評Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.7S
159.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 158.9E, APPROXIMATELY 690 NM EAST
OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION BROADLY WRAPPING INTO A
CONSOLIDATING LLCC. A 020413Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REAVEALS
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING
INTO CENTER. A 022220Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A 15 TO 20 KNOT CIRCULATION
WITH 25 KNOT WIND BARBS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO IMPROVING
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM

krichard2011

JTWC發布TCFA螺旋性相當不錯
風速也提升到了30kts
相信過不久應該就會編號了

蜜露

GFS數值預測 , 未來似乎是不弱的TC

路徑類似 Ingrid ,  前陣子的Gillian . 甚至Monica .   
看好這個97P的未來發展.




可能是目前三個熱帶低壓. 潛力最好的一個. 可能未來會比05W略強點..

t02436

JTWC升格23P

23P TWENTYTHRE 140404 1200  11.2S  156.5E SHEM   30  1000

這隻應該是猛貨加上長途跋涉型

t02436

終於編號了
BoM編號15U
初步上望澳式C3
但強度應該不只如此

Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0110 UTC 05/04/2014
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 11.8S
Longitude: 156.3E
Location Accuracy: within 40 nm [75 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [240 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [8 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa


FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  05/0600: 12.0S 155.6E:     050 [095]:  035  [065]:  994
+12:  05/1200: 12.1S 154.9E:     065 [120]:  035  [065]:  993
+18:  05/1800: 12.3S 154.5E:     075 [140]:  040  [075]:  992
+24:  06/0000: 12.4S 154.1E:     090 [165]:  040  [075]:  992
+36:  06/1200: 12.7S 153.4E:     110 [200]:  045  [085]:  989
+48:  07/0000: 12.9S 152.9E:     130 [235]:  055  [100]:  983
+60:  07/1200: 12.7S 152.3E:     150 [275]:  060  [110]:  980
+72:  08/0000: 12.6S 151.6E:     165 [310]:  065  [120]:  977
+96:  09/0000: 12.2S 149.8E:     210 [390]:  085  [155]:  960
+120: 10/0000: 12.6S 147.5E:     300 [555]:  085  [155]:  961