簽到天數: 3291 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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t02436|2014-2-24 16:03
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JMA終於報出48時後有機會升格TD
JTWC最新一報維持Low評
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.2N
153.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.8N 154.4E, APPROXIMATELY 218 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK, FSM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS A BROAD AND RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
THAT REMAINS FULLY EXPOSED. THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION, WHICH IS
BEGINNING TO CURVE AND BAND TOGETHER, REMAINS SHEARED - AT LEAST 02
DEGREES NORTHWESTWARD OF THE LLCC. THE MSI LOOP ALSO HINTS AT A
SECONDARY, ALBEIT WEAK, VORTEX EAST OF CHUUK. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO SHOW A POOR ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO
30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, A DIVERGENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW
IS HELPING SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION. NUMERIC MODELS HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT, THE LATEST RUN PORTRAYING WEAK DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS
AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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