t02436

編號第三天後看看現狀

從紅外線衛星看蠻有氣勢的
只是從IR看對流都集中在赤道附近
有逐漸分裂的現象





昨天21點的風場
LLCC呈狹長狀
也沒有特別集中在中心



至於乾空氣較昨日有退縮
但仍是發展關鍵




GFS和NCEP都非常看好發展
今年二月颱看來只能寄望這隻了
成颱與否還要繼續觀察

krichard2011

GFS預測這隻可能會是個猛貨 = =
除了強度方面....
路徑方面可能也值得注意了
後期不確定性相當大

甜心

今天看起來它好變的太胖了:(，一下子吸收太多水氣環流變太大反而不易整合反而容易會發展出類似2009年莫拉克颱風那種虛胖型態。

krichard2011

甜心 發表於 2014-2-20 11:36
今天看起來它好變的太胖了，一下子吸收太多水氣環流變太大反而不易整合反而容易會發展出類似2009年莫拉克 ...

你指的該不會是南方黃色圈圈跨赤道的那一大坨的雲系?
那不是本體喔 本體是紅色圈圈得那坨
不過說真的南方得那坨似乎看起來更有氣勢的樣子
熱帶系統早期 吸多一點水氣對流爆一爆其實不算壞事...

t02436

取消評級

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.5N
151.2E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

甜心

t02436 發表於 2014-2-20 13:50
取消評級

過去一天它北方的環場風切真的有點太大了，不過主體與環流依然完整若未來幾天大氣環境轉好應該很快又會被評級。

t02436

甜心 發表於 2014-2-21 12:01
過去一天它北方的環場風切真的有點太大了，不過主體與環流依然完整若未來幾天大氣環境轉好應該很快又會被 ...

不用等囉~~~XD
馬上重評LOW

只是對流還是有點貧乏

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.2N 151.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 50 NM SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEFINED, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A 210358Z
NOAA-19 IMAGE INDICATES FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO
THE LLCC. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CHUUK SHOW LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
WITH SLP NEAR 1004 MB WITH 24-HOUR SLP DECREASE OF 1.5 MB. THE LLCC
IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND IS UNDER MODERATE
TO STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS
WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

krichard2011

雖然目前整個菲律賓東方海面的環境相當惡劣
不過GFS依然相當看好
還預測不排除會是個猛貨
以中度左右的強度接上北方槽線 北轉
路徑方面現在預測大致無害 不過後期還是有變數