簽到天數: 815 天 [LV.10]以壇為家III
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martin191919|2013-12-24 23:31
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IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1341 UTC 24/12/2013
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 04U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 12.6S
Longitude: 128.5E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: southeast [136 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [5 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1002 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.0/1.5
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm [165 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 24/1800: 13.0S 128.5E: 040 [080]: 030 [055]: 1000
+12: 25/0000: 13.3S 128.4E: 055 [100]: 030 [055]: 1000
+18: 25/0600: 13.7S 128.0E: 065 [125]: 035 [065]: 998
+24: 25/1200: 14.0S 127.6E: 080 [145]: 035 [065]: 998
+36: 26/0000: 14.5S 125.3E: 100 [180]: 025 [045]: 1005
+48: 26/1200: 14.5S 123.4E: 130 [240]: 025 [045]: 1004
+60: 27/0000: 14.3S 121.9E: 170 [315]: 025 [045]: 1003
+72: 27/1200: 14.5S 120.9E: 200 [370]: 030 [055]: 1000
+96: 28/1200: 16.1S 118.8E: 200 [370]: 055 [100]: 986
+120: 29/1200: 17.8S 115.8E: 290 [535]: 075 [140]: 970
REMARKS:
Current position is fair, based on animated infrared imagery and supplemented by
microwave imagery.
Initial classification of 1.5 was assigned at around 23/18Z. During the day,
convection persisted through the diurnal minimum with a DT of 1.5 maintained,
based on a curved band pattern with a 0.2-0.3 wrap. During the last 6 hours,
deep convection has diminished considerably with structure harder to identify.
Based on latest infrared imagery a DT of 1.5 was assigned on a 0.2-0.3 wrap,
however a FT of 1.0 based on the MET was used. The CI has been held at 1.5.
Visible and microwave images over the last 24 hours have depicted that this is a
small circulation. The low is located in a favourable environment under the
upper level ridge and in combination with an approaching mid latitude trough to
the west there is good equatorward and poleward outflow. The low is surrounded
by deep moist air. CIMSS vertical wind shear at 06Z was 10-15kt northerly, which
has explained why the deeper convection during the last 6-12 hours has been
displaced southwards of the LLCC.
The low is expected be slow moving over the next 6-12 hours before taking a
south to southwesterly track under the influence of a mid level ridge to the
east. There is significant variation between models in the structure of the
system after crossing the Kimberley coast into the Indian Ocean, due to
differences in modelling the interactions of the system with a weak low near
Indonesia.
Given that this is a small system in a favourable environment, a development of
1 to 1.5 T numbers per day is expected. It is possible TC intensity will be
reached by 25/06Z or 25/12Z, near the north Kimberley coast. The system should
then weaken below cyclone intensity later on Wednesday night into Thursday
morning as it crosses the coast.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 24/1930 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
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