krichard2011

它還在呀怎麼被移到過去氣旋了= =只是移到孟灣了

Meow

JMA 一直維持 TD，JTWC 也重新評價 Medium。

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 12N 100E WEST SLOWLY.



THE REMNANTS OF 30W HAS TRACKED WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF
THAILAND NEAR 12.5N 100.8E, APPROXIMATELY 74 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
BANGKOK, THAILAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) SHOWS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER A POORLY DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A MORE DEFINED MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT IN THE EIR, LEADING TO INCREASED VORTICITY
THROUGHOUT THE VERTICAL COLUMN. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS
IMPROVED CONVECTION AND ORGANIZATION SUPPORTING THE BETTER
ORGANIZATION OF THE REMNANTS OF 30W. THE LLCC IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS PROVIDING
DIFFLUENT WESTERLY OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (05 TO 10
KNOTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC ARE
FAVORABLE (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MEDIUM.

Meow

JTWC 認為登陸了，FNMOC 已把 30W 移到北印度洋。

TPPN11 PGTW 080319

A. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (OVER THAILAND)

B. 08/0230Z

C. 12.7N

D. 99.4E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   LONG

krichard2011

其實底層還挺不錯螺旋性還挺明顯的不過整體幾乎在陸地上 發展仍受限
可能要等近一部進入孟灣才有機會發展
GFS也有一點反應
但是預測強度不是很給力

Meow

版主不要只看 NRL 就判定擾動有無存在。最近 NRL 常常出問題，有時部份擾動不會出現在網站上，最好搭配 FNMOC 評斷。

martin191919

JTWC：TCFA
WTIO22 PGTW 131300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.5N 85.3E TO 10.8N 80.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 131230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.4N 84.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
   THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 85.9E, IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 84.5E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AS NEW FORMATIVE BANDS DEVELOPED
ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTORS. ADDITIONALLY, THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED, AS EVIDENCED
ON A 130906Z 37GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST
SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE (10 TO 20
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER, THE VWS IS EASILY OFFSET BY
GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW THAT HAS A STRONG POLEWARD BIAS. THE DYNAMIC
MODELS INDICATE SLOW, CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
141300Z.  //
NNNN

桜slime

martin191919 發表於 2013-11-13 22:02
JTWC：TCFA
WTIO22 PGTW 131300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

這個位置才TCFA:L
如果跟現在南海那個一樣,
搞十年都不能升TS的話,
進入阿拉伯海也不是不可能的事;P
是要吹襲非州嗎?
(這快要環繞地球半周了:lol)

jwpk9899

IMD終於給他個BOB5了...

Time of issue: 1930 hours IST Dated: 13-11-2013
Bulletin No.: BOB05/2013/04
Sub: Depression over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal.
The depression over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal moved slowly westward at a speed of 5 km per hour and lay centred at 1730 hrs IST of today, the 13thth November 2013 near latitude 11.50N and longitude 85.50E, about 600 km east-southeast of Chennai, 680 km east-southeast of Nellore and 620 km east-northeast of Nagapattinam The system would move slowly westwards for some more time and then west-northwestwards, intensify into a deep depression and cross north Tamil Nadu coast between Nagapattinam and Chennai by 16thth November 2013 evening.