30W 自西太飄洋過海趨向索馬利亞?

martin191919 · 2013-10-31 20:50

  熱帶風暴
編號：30 W
名稱：無

  基本資料
擾動編號日期：2013 年 10 月 31 日 20  時
　消散日期　　：2013 年 11 月 23 日 00  時
　登陸地點　　：菲律賓民答那峨島北蘇里高省
　　　　　　　越南寧順省
　　　　　　　印度泰彌爾納德邦

  巔峰時期資料
　近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
美國海軍 (JTWC) ：  35   kts  (  TS  )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) ：  15   m/s (  30 kt )
海平面最低氣壓    ： 996 百帕

  過去路徑圖

  討論帖圖片
98W.6.6N.146.4E.15kts.1010hPa

以上資料來自 : JTWC、颱風論壇編輯製作

t02436 · 2013-11-1 18:18

評級LOW!

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.5N 142.0E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH BROKEN CONVECTION IN THE OUTER PERIPHERIES. A 010528Z SSMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS POOR LOW LEVEL ORGANIZATION AS THE CONVECTION IS DISORGANIZED AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN FLANK. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AS FAIR OUTFLOW IS BEING OFFSET BY LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE (28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS) FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

krichard2011 · 2013-11-3 11:27

JTWC Medium已發~~
不過GFS預測到了南海才會有明顯發展

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.1N
137.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.1N 137.0E, APPROXIMATELY 95 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
A BROAD, PARTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A
SLIGHTLY DEEPENED AND MORE ORGANIZED FORMATIVE BANDS MOSTLY ALONG
THE WESTERN FLANK. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WINDS SHEAR (VWS) AND
GOOD WESTWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE AREA
ARE PERENNIALLY WARM (28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS) FOR DEVELOPMENT.
DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS, MORE THAN LIKELY AFTER THE SYSTEM CROSSES
THE PHILIPPINES AND EXITS INTO THE SOUTH CHINS SEA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. IN VIEW OF THE
IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

蔡秉勳 · 2013-11-3 14:02

本帖最後由蔡秉勳於 2013-11-3 14:07 編輯

JMA: T.D.(Tropical Depression)
中心氣壓1008hpa ,以10kts(20km/hr)穩定向西移動中
預計它在明天可能穿越菲律賓南邊,
系統中心的登陸點則以比斯利格市附近機會較大~

t02436 · 2013-11-3 17:48

第一報路徑出爐上看C1

今深夜到明早就有機會命名
沒意外的話副高還是壓的住
這隻將通過民答那峨後襲向越南胡志明市

martin191919 · 2013-11-3 21:00

TPPN11 PGTW 030937

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (E OF MINDANAO)

B. 03/0830Z

C. 8.5N

D. 130.0E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/2.0/D0.5/18HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVTN WRAPS .20 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDS 1.5 DT. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
03/0638Z 8.3N 130.0E SSMI

DARLOW