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c789654|2011-9-18 07:27
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WTPN31 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18W (ROKE) WARNING NR 026
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 24.9N 130.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.9N 130.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 25.6N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 26.3N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 27.0N 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 27.6N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 30.3N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 34.4N 138.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 42.8N 146.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 25.1N 130.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 18W (ROKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 171403Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A SMALL
DEEP CONVECTIVE EYE WITH A LARGE CONVECTIVE BAND ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR IMAGERY AND RJTD
RADAR FIXES WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
THE PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO 65
KNOTS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
AND EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ALSO, THE SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY IS WEAKENING. TS 18W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WITHIN
A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
IN THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND SLOWLY TURN NORTHWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS FORECAST TO THEN TURN NORTHEASTWARD AS A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. TS 18W
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DUE TO HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND GOOD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AROUND TAU 72 AND TRANSITION INTO A STRONG EXTRA-
TROPICAL LOW BY TAU 120. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE INITIAL TURN NORTHWARD. HOWEVER, UKMO AND GFS
TRACK THE SYSTEM FARTHER WESTWARD BACK TOWARDS OKINAWA. THE MODELS
ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH THEY
VARY IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
171800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND
182100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 19W (SONCA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
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