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c789654|2011-9-18 16:23
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WTPN31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18W (ROKE) WARNING NR 028
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 25.9N 130.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.9N 130.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 26.6N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 27.4N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 28.2N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 29.9N 133.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 34.7N 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 42.4N 146.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 32 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 51.2N 160.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 26.1N 130.6E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 18W (ROKE), LOCATED APPROXIMAELY 730 NM SOUTH-
WEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A RADAR
FIX FROM JAPAN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD RANGING FROM 50 TO 70 KNOTS.
WATER VAPOR ANIMATION INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING ELONGATED ON
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG WESTERLIES AHEAD OF
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. CONCURRENTLY, POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED
WHICH HAS HELPED SUSTAIN THE STORM'S INTENSITY. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
REMAINS SOLID. TS 18W HAS CLOSED THE LOOP AND IS POISED TO RECURVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE TO
THE EAST. THE STORM MAY INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS
LONG AS OUTFLOW IS UNIMPEDED. AFTER TAU 72 AND A BRIEF LANDFALL NEAR
TOKYO, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD, BECOMING A COLD CORE LOW BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TURN TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH VARIANCES IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 19W (SONCA)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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