|
|
c789654|2011-9-21 05:38
|
顯示全部樓層
WTPN31 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 18W (ROKE) WARNING NR 038
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 31.7N 134.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.7N 134.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 35.2N 138.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 39.7N 143.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 35 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 45.0N 149.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 32.6N 135.5E.
TYPHOON (TY) 18W (ROKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM SOUTHWEST OF
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR
INDICATIONS THAT TY 18W HAS BEGUN TO DECLINE IN INTENSITY. CLOUD
TOPS ARE WARMING AND A RAGGED 10 NM EYE STILL EXISTS, BUT IT IS
FILLING. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS PRONOUNCED STRETCHING IN
THE UPPER CLOUD SHIELD, INDICATING THE STORM IS MOVING INTO AN AREA
OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DESPITE THE BEGINNING OF A
WEAKENING TREND, A 201749Z TRMM IMAGE REVEALS A THICK, CONCENTRIC
EYE WALL AND ABUNDANT DEEP CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE STORM MAY HAVE
BEGUN THE DE-INTENSIFICATION PHASE, IT STILL HAS PLENTY OF STRENGTH
LEFT, AND GIVEN THE RAPID NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY OF TY 18W, IT WILL
MAKE LANDFALL AT WELL ABOVE TYPHOON INTENSITY. AT THE SAME TIME IT
ENCOUNTERS THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL HONSHU, TY 18W WILL
MOVE INTO A ZONE OF SHARPLY INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AS WELL
AS ENCOUNTERING THE WEAKENING EFFECTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THOSE THREE FACTORS WILL
COMBINE TO EXERT A TREMENDOUS WEAKENING FORCE ON TY 18W, BUT ITS
RAPID MOVEMENT THROUGH THE SHIZUOKA PREFECTURE AND THEN THE KANTO
PLAIN WILL ALLOW THE STORM TO MAINTAIN ENOUGH STRUCTURAL INTEGRITY
TO REGENERATE ALMOST IMMEDIATELY AFTER IT MOVES OFF-SHORE OF THE
TOHOKU REGION. AT THAT POINT, THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS
WILL BE NEARLY COMPLETE AND TY 18W WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED INTO A
HIGH-GALE TO STORM FORCE MID-LATITUDE LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT BUT IS NOT PROPERLY ACCOUNTING FOR THE STEERING
INFLUENCE THE JAPANESE ALPS WILL HAVE ON THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. ADDITIONALLY, THERE EXISTS SOME WEST BIAS IN THE UPPER
LEVELS DUE TO A MODEL PROPENSITY TO STEER TOWARD THE UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS. FOR THOSE REASONS, THE JTWC FORECAST STAYS JUST AHEAD
AND EAST OF CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS
26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z.//
NNNN
|
|
![RTKO63_201109210430]15_en.png](data/attachment/forum/month_1109/110921052768014e6abd194e44.png "RTKO63_201109210430]15_en.png")
![RTKO63_201109211630]15_en.png](data/attachment/forum/month_1109/110921175567e9bcc6d360cabc.png "RTKO63_201109211630]15_en.png")
