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c789654|2011-9-16 06:12
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WTPN31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18W (ROKE) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 26.1N 130.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 26.1N 130.4E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 26.5N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 26.6N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 26.5N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 26.2N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 26.0N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 26.1N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 26.5N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 26.2N 130.2E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 18W (ROKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM EAST OF
KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE WEST INTO THE SOUTH QUADRANT. A
151554Z TRMM 37 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH
MULTIPLE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE TRMM IMAGE ALONG WITH
THE 15/11Z AMSU CROSS-SECTION, WHICH SHOWS A +2C WARM TEMPERATURE
ANOMALY, SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM IS STILL A WARM-CORE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DESPITE SOME EVIDENCE (UPPER-LOW OVER LLCC) THAT IT MAY BE SLOWLY
TRANSITIONING TO A HYBRID SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON HIGHER RANGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
25-35 KNOTS AND RECENT ASCAT DATA. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE TRMM IMAGE AND IR IMAGERY. TS 18W IS
TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE WEAKENING SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE 15/12Z UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSES (700/500MB) INDICATE A WEAK FINGER OF THE STR
EXTENDING ACROSS HONSHU INTO SHANGHAI WITH EXTENSIVE WESTERLIES
ACROSS ASIA. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY TRENDED TOWARD A WEAK
STEERING PATTERN, WHICH WILL ESSENTIALLY, STALL THE SYSTEM NEAR
OKINAWA FOR 3-5 DAYS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
IS SPLIT INTO TWO DISTINCT CLUSTERS. THE ECMWF, JGSM AND UKMO
TRACKERS STALL THE SYSTEM WEST OF OKINAWA WHILE THE NOGAPS, GFDN AND
GFS STALL THE SYSTEM EAST OF OKINAWA. BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSES, THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST FAVORS A STALL WEST
OF OKINAWA SINCE THE STR REMAINS TO THE NORTH. DUE TO THE WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT AFTER TAU 48, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
TRACK BUT DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF TS 18W, IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL IMPACT THE OKINAWA REGION UNTIL THE SYSTEM
EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 151800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z
AND 162100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 19W (SONCA) WARNINGS (WTPN32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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