WTXS31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TERATAI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TERATAI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 14.3S 102.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 102.9E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 14.8S 101.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 14.4S 102.6E.
09DEC21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TERATAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 284
NM SOUTHWEST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A SIX-HOUR ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A WEAKENED CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT HAS BECOME
MORE OFFSET FROM A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI
LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30KTS, EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 090242Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWING MAXIMUM WIND BARBS OF 20KTS WITHIN THE TRAILING
SEMI-CIRCLE, IS HELD HIGHER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF
T1.5/25KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE HAS DRIFTED
INTO COOLER (26C) SST AND STRONG (25KT+) RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AS THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME CROSS-PHASED WITH THE
STORM MOTION. TC 02S HAS WEAKENED TO BELOW THE JTWC WARNING
THRESHOLD AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 10 FEET.//
NNNN
Ex-TC Teratai (05U) was located near 14.2S 102.9E at 1pm AWST Thursday, about 500 km southwest of Christmas Island and moving towards the west southwest. It is unlikely to redevelop, and should dissipate over the weekend.
Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Friday: Low
Saturday:Very Low
Sunday:Very Low
