ABIO10 PGTW 300100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/300100ZNOV2021-301800ZDEC2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.1S
101.8E, APPROXIMATELY 256 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD CONVECTION
SURROUNDING A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A
RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20 KNOT
WINDS OFFSET TO THE NORTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
SYSTEM IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY HIGH (25-30KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92S WILL CONSOLIDATE AND TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WITH GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE
BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1). AS A
LOW. //
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tropical low (05U) was located near 6.8S 102.0E at 8am AWST Tuesday, about 575 kilometres northwest of Christmas Island and 520 kilometres west of Jakarta. It should drift towards the southeast over the next few days, but it is highly likely to remain north of the Western Region. It should start weakening from Friday onwards.
No other significant systems are expected in the Western Region for at least the next three days.
Likelihood of a system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Wednesday:Very Low
Thursday:Very Low
Friday:Very Low
ABIO10 PGTW 301800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/301800ZNOV2021-011800ZDEC2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST
OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 101.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 98.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 131 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PHUKET, THAILAND.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP
FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT SYSTEM IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG OUTFLOW
ALOFT, MODERATE (20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY
WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94W WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE BAY OF
BENGAL BEFORE RECURVING TO THE NORTH NEAR THE EASTERN
COAST OF INDIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 7.1S 101.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.2S 102.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 256 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF JAKARTA, INDONISIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DEEP BROAD CONVECTION OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
A RECENT 301414Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS 25 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH SOME
30 KNOT WINDS CLOSER TO THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW
TO MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM
(28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92S WILL TRACK SOUTH-
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, HOWEVER THEY ARE SPLIT
ON INTENSIFICATION WITH ONLY GFS REACHING WARNING
CRITERIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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WTXS21 PGTW 302300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
070 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.7S 102.8E TO 9.6S 102.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 302230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.8S 102.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.2S 102.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.8S 102.9E, APPROXIMATELY
252NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASING ORGANIZATION OF THE
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A
301902Z ASMR2 SERIES SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING MOST OF THE
LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT, MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT 92S WILL TRACK SOUTH
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, THEY ARE SPLIT ON
INTENSIFICATION WITH ONLY GFS REACHING WARNING CRITERIA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
012300Z.
//
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