老農民版夜神月

BoM命名Teratai

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1305 UTC 01/12/2021
Name: Tropical Cyclone Teratai
Identifier: 05U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 9.7S
Longitude: 102.2E
Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: south southwest (209 deg)
Speed of Movement: 4 knots (7 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code:
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm (185 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  01/1800:  9.9S 101.9E:     050 (090):  040  (075):  997
+12:  02/0000: 10.0S 101.6E:     060 (110):  040  (075):  997
+18:  02/0600:  9.9S 101.2E:     070 (125):  035  (065):  999
+24:  02/1200:  9.8S 100.8E:     075 (145):  030  (055): 1002
+36:  03/0000:  9.5S 100.2E:     095 (170):  030  (055): 1002
+48:  03/1200:  9.4S  99.4E:     105 (195):  025  (045): 1005
+60:  04/0000:  9.3S  98.7E:     120 (220):  025  (045): 1005
+72:  04/1200:  9.3S  98.3E:     135 (250):  020  (035): 1006
+96:  05/1200:  9.1S  98.3E:     190 (350):  020  (035): 1007
+120: 06/1200:  9.2S  99.6E:     235 (430):  020  (035): 1007
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Teratai (05U) was named by the Indonesian Agency for
Meteorological, Climatological and Geophysics (BMKG) at 1200 UTC.  

Position based on animated IR imagery and SSMIS at 0945 UTC.  

Outflow has become restricted to the north although CIMSS shear analysis at
0900 UTC indicates less than 10 knots of shear. Limited surface observations
and objective aids available. DT ambiguous. Microwave and IR imagery suggest
the system structure and intensity remains consistent with previous forecasts.
   

Teratai is a small system with gales extending at most 60nm from the centre.
Given the small size, it is expected to quickly respond to environmental
conditions, which should become less favourable during Thursday. As the system
weakens it will be steered westwards under the influence of the subtropical
ridge.  

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 01/1930 UTC.

老農民版夜神月

BMKG定強的較JTWC及BoM高些,為40KT

02S TWO 211201 1200 9.5S 101.9E SHEM 35 1004

IDJ21020
BADAN METEOROLOGI KLIMATOLOGI DAN GEOFISIKA
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

            BULETIN TEKNIS SIKLON TROPIS
            
Dikeluarkan oleh TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE JAKARTA
Pada: 15:42 UTC 01/12/2021
Digunakan hanya sebagai pertimbangan pembuatan prakiraan cuaca, tidak untuk disebarluaskan secara langsung kepada masyarakat.

System: 1
Storm ID: 92S

SIKLON TROPIS: TERATAI
Data pada: 01/1200 UTC
Lintang: 9.5LS
Bujur: 101.9BT
Akurasi Posisi: sekitar 30 mil (55 km)
Arah gerak: barat daya (233 derajat)
Kecepatan gerak: 5 knots (9 km/jam)
Arah 1: Dari Tanjung Karang
   Pada  +0: 320 mil (600 km) barat daya
   Pada +12: 350 mil (650 km) barat daya
   Pada +24: 360 mil (670 km) barat daya
Arah 2: Dari Bengkulu
   Pada  +0: 340 mil (630 km) selatan

Angin Maksimum 10-Menit: 40 knots (75 km/jam)
Gust Maksimum 3-detik: 55 knots (100 km/jam)
Tekanan dipusat siklon: 1000 hPa
Intensitas: Gale
24 jam Intensitas: Gale

Radius angin 34-knot pada kuadran TL:   
Radius angin 34-knot pada kuadran Tg: 50 mil (95 km)
Radius angin 34-knot pada kuadran BD: 50 mil (95 km)
Radius angin 34-knot pada kuadran BL: 40 mil (75 km)

Radius angin Maksimum:   
Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/25HRS
Tekanan pada isobar terluar:  
Radius isobar tertutup terluar:   
Ketebalan Vertikal Siklon:  

DATA PRAKIRAAN
Tgl./Jam    : Posisi          :   Akurasi: Kec.Angin Max:Tekanan dipusat: Gust
(UTC)       : derajat         :  mil (km): knots(km/jam):            hPa: knots(km/jam):
+12: 02/0000:   9.5LS  101.2BT: 055 (100):    035  (065):           1005:    050  (095)
+24: 02/1200:   9.2LS  100.6BT: 090 (165):    030  (055):           1006:    045  (085)
+48: 03/1200:   9.0LS   99.2BT: 105 (195):    030  (055):           1007:    045  (085)
+72: 04/1200:   9.4LS   97.5BT: 120 (220):    025  (045):           1010:    045  (085)

Daerah Siaga Cuaca Buruk: Kodya Tangerang, Lebak, Pandeglang, Serang, Tangerang, Bengkulu Selatan, Bengkulu Utara, Rejang Lebong, Jakarta Barat, Jakarta Pusat, Jakarta Selatan, Jakarta Timur, Jakarta Utara, Bandung, Bekasi, Bogor, Ciamis, Cianjur, Cirebon, Garut, Indramayu, Karawang, Kodya Bandung, Kodya Bogor, Kodya Sukabumi, Kuningan, Majalengka, Purwakarta, Subang, Sukabumi, Sumedang, Tasikmalaya, Kodya Bandar Lampung, Lampung Barat, Lampung Selatan, Lampung Tengah and Lampung Utara
Peringatan Dini Angin Kencang: DKI Jakarta  

KETERANGAN TEKNIS
Untuk informasi lebih lanjut hubungi Call Center BMKG 196

DAMPAK
Siklon tropis TERATAI  memberikan dampak tidak langsung terhadap cuaca di Indonesia berupa :
- Potensi hujan  dengan intensitas sedang-lebat disertai angin kencang di wilayah Bengkulu,  Lampung, Banten, Jawa Barat.
- Potensi angin kecang di wilayah DKI Jakarta

Tinggi gelombang 1.25 - 2.5 meter (Moderate):
- Perairan Enggano - Bengkulu
- Perairan barat Lampung
- Teluk Lampung Bagian Selatan
- Perairan Selatan Jawa barat hingga Jawa timur
- Samudra Hindia selatan Jawa tengah hingga Jawa Timur

Tinggi gelombang 2.5 - 4.0 meter (Rough Sea):
- Selat Sunda bagian selatan dan barat
- Perairan selatan Banten
- Samudra Hindia Selatan Banten hingga Jawa Barat.


Buletin berikutnya untuk sistem ini akan dikeluarkan pada: 01/1900 UTC oleh Jakarta TCWC.

老農民版夜神月

補上JTWC的升格報文,預報理由

WTPN31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 27W (NYATOH) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 27W (NYATOH) WARNING NR 009   
   UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 27W
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   011200Z --- NEAR 15.2N 135.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 135.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z --- 16.5N 135.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z --- 18.3N 136.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z --- 20.5N 138.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z --- 22.2N 140.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z --- 24.8N 143.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 23.8N 143.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 22.7N 142.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 135.6E.
01DEC21. TYPHOON 27W (NYATOH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 372 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z.
//
NNNN

WDXS31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR
001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 9.2S 102.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 366 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF COCOS ISLANDS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SYSTEM
THAT HAD A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUSTAINED CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS BUT NOW APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME STAGNANT WITH ITS PROGRESSION.
THE INITIAL POSITION AND INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 010258Z
ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 30-35 KTS WINDS
AROUND THE CENTER.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-15 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S IS CURRENTLY IN A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
TC 02S WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO OUTFLOW ALOFT TO ENCOURAGE FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM WILL BRIEFLY REMAIN AT 35
KNOTS BEFORE WEAKENING TO 30 KNOTS OR LESS BY TAU 24.

MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE DECAY SHIPS MODELS
(BOTH NVGM AND AFUM VERSIONS) WHICH ONLY SHOW MINIMAL
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, THERE IS CURRENTLY NO
MODEL SUPPORT FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF TC 02S.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

短暫的升格澳式C1並命名後,BoM旋即判定02S已成為後熱帶氣旋

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1915 UTC 01/12/2021
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Teratai
Identifier: 05U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 9.9S
Longitude: 101.8E
Location Accuracy: within 45nm (85 km)
Movement Towards: southwest (234 deg)
Speed of Movement: 4 knots (8 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots (55 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code:
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm (185 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  02/0000: 10.0S 101.5E:     050 (090):  030  (055): 1000
+12:  02/0600:  9.9S 101.0E:     060 (110):  030  (055): 1000
+18:  02/1200:  9.8S 100.7E:     070 (125):  030  (055): 1002
+24:  02/1800:  9.6S 100.4E:     075 (145):  030  (055): 1002
+36:  03/0600:  9.4S  99.7E:     095 (170):  030  (055): 1002
+48:  03/1800:  9.4S  98.9E:     105 (195):  025  (045): 1005
+60:  04/0600:  9.3S  98.2E:     120 (220):  025  (045): 1005
+72:  04/1800:  9.3S  97.9E:     135 (250):  020  (035): 1007
+96:  05/1800:  9.1S  98.5E:     190 (350):  020  (035): 1007
+120: 06/1800:  9.2S 100.0E:     235 (430):  020  (035): 1007
REMARKS:
Position based on animated IR imagery.  

Deep convection has become very limited and displaced to the south of the LLCC,
despite relatively low shear. Stratocumulus is evident on the southern side of
the LLCC suggesting a stable maritime airmass and models indicate
reintensification is unlikely.
     
As the system continues to weaken it will be steered westwards under the
influence of the subtropical ridge.  

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins for this system unless it reintensifies.

Details:

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	2 am December 2	tropical low	9.9S	101.8E	85
+6hr	8 am December 2	tropical low	10.0S	101.5E	90
+12hr	2 pm December 2	tropical low	9.9S	101.0E	110
+18hr	8 pm December 2	tropical low	9.8S	100.7E	125
+24hr	2 am December 3	tropical low	9.6S	100.4E	145
+36hr	2 pm December 3	tropical low	9.4S	99.7E	170
+48hr	2 am December 4	tropical low	9.4S	98.9E	195
+60hr	2 pm December 4	tropical low	9.3S	98.2E	220
+72hr	2 am December 5	tropical low	9.3S	97.9E	250

老農民版夜神月

JTWC第二報亦旋即發布Final Warning

WTXS31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TERATAI) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TERATAI) WARNING NR 002   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   011800Z --- NEAR 10.3S 101.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.3S 101.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z --- 10.4S 101.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 10.3S 101.5E.
01DEC21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TERATAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1017 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TROPICAL CYCLONE
02S HAS STEADILY WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAVING BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE
NORTH OF WEAK CONVECTION. WHILE SHEAR IS RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS
TIME, AND SSTS REMAIN WARM, THE PRESENCE OF SUSTAINED NORTHERLY
STRAIT LINE FLOW IS LEADING TO A DRAMATIC DOWNSHEAR TILT IN THE
CORE, INHIBITING CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION. THE PRESENCE OF
A LARGE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD TO THE SOUTH, EXTENDING EQUATORWARD UP
THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION, SUGGESTS A RELATIVELY STABLE
ATMOSPHERE, WHICH IN LIGHT OF THE VERY SMALL OVERALL CIRCULATION,
ARGUES FOR DISSIPATION IN THE NEAR-TERM. WHILE THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BELOW WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS, THE REMNANT LOW LEVEL VORTEX WILL CONTINUING TRACKING TO THE
WEST WHILE REMAINING BELOW 25 KNOTS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 12 FEET.//
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老農民版夜神月

JTWC亦於00Z降格TD

02S TERATAI 211202 0000 9.9S 101.1E SHEM 30 1005

老農民版夜神月

雖已減弱為TD強度,但仍將持續在蘇門答臘西南一帶徘徊

02S TERATAI 211203 1200 8.8S 98.1E SHEM 25 1006

Ex-TC Teratai (05U) was located near 8.9S 98.5E at 12pm AWST Friday, about 410 km north northeast of Cocos Island, and moving west northwest around 12 km/h.

It will most likely track west or northwest over the next few days (likely to be north of the region). The environment is generally unfavourable, and even though we may see some fluctuations at times of the intensity of the system it is most likely to be a weak system. 05U is unlikely to reintensify into a tropical cyclone in the Western Region during the forecast period.

05U is not expected to have any direct impact on Christmas Island or the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Saturday:Very Low
Sunday:Very Low
Monday:Very Low

\

老農民版夜神月

JTWC評級Low

ABIO10 PGTW 050200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/050200Z-051800ZDEC2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040751ZDEC2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 04DEC21 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (JAWAD) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 16.1N 84.9E, APPROXIMATELY 437 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA,
INDIA, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 040900) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 02S) HAS PERSISTED
NEAR 7.4S 98.3E, APPROXIMATELY 297 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF COCOS
ISLANDS. A RECENT PARTIAL SCATTEROMETRY PASS REVEAL 25 KNOT WINDS IN
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET
BY VERY HIGH (30-40KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 48-72 HOURS BEFORE RECURVING TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK, HOWEVER
THEY ARE SPLIT ON INTENSIFICATION WITH NAVGEM, GFS AND CFC BEING THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1). AS A
LOW. //
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