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JTWC首報上望80節
WTIO31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 16.0N 89.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 89.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 16.8N 89.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 17.9N 89.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 19.1N 88.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 20.4N 87.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 22.3N 86.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 23.8N 83.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 89.8E.
24MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 404 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO) IS SHOWING PRONOUNCED CONSOLIDATION AND TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE
FIELDS AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). PREVIOUSLY, IT CARRIED THE SIGNATURE AND BROAD WIND FIELDS OF A
MONSOON DEPRESSION, BUT RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY AND RECENT MULTISPECTRAL (MSI) SHOW SUBSTANTIAL TIGHTENING OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE DUE TO AN EXPOSED LLCC AND TWO MICROWAVE IMAGES (A 232223Z SSMI AND 232245Z SSMIS). A 231149Z SMAP PASS SHOWED THE HEAVY ASYMMETRY OF THE SYSTEM WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE BUT MUCH LIGHTER EASTERLIES OVER THE POLEWARD SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER, BUOY OBSERVATIONS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OVER THE PAST 8 HOURS VERIFY INCREASING INTENSITY OF THE EASTERLIES AND FALLING PRESSURES ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. PREVIOUSLY, THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS FORCED BY A WESTERLY WIND BURST ASSOCIATED WITH THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION AND THE INDIAN MONSOON CIRCULATION, BUT NOW THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO ROTATE INDEPENDENTLY AS IT BEGINS A POLEWARD DRIFT. THE INITIAL TRACK IS FOR THE FIRST TWELVE HOURS IS UNCERTAIN, WITH THE NEWLY FORMING LLCC ROTATING AROUND A BROAD AND DIFFUSE CENTROID, BUT BY TAU 12 THE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE INTO A NORTHWESTERLY TRACK, ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EXTENDING OVER SOUTHEAST ASIA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TRACK DIRECTLY TOWARDS THE AREA OF PARADIP, INDIA. 31 DEGREE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, THE BROAD NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION AND LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE, ALONG WITH MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-25 KT) FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTORS ON INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES SUPPRESSED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE FIGHTING 20-30KTS OF SHEAR THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE SHEAR WILL EASE SUBSTANTIALLY AND TC 02B WILL PEAK IN INTENSITY JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. DUE TO ITS ORIGIN AS A MONSOON DEPRESSION AND THE VIGOROUS MONSOONAL SOUTHWESTERLIES, TC 02B WILL CARRY EXPANSIVE GALE FORCE WIND FIELDS THROUGHOUT ITS LIFE SPAN.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.
//
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