WTIO21 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93B)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.1N 89.7E TO 18.0N 92.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 221430Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.3N 90.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.1N 89.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 90.0E, APPROXIMATELY 438
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 221024Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOW FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,
DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93B WILL CONSOLIDATE
QUICKLY AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WHILE REMAINING IN
THE SAME GENERAL AREA BEFORE TURNING SHARPLY NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
231500Z.//
NNNN
