老農民版夜神月

  特強氣旋風暴  
編號：BOB 02  ( 02 B )
名稱：Yaas

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2021 年 05 月 21 日 19 時
JTWC升格日期:2021 年 05 月 24 日 08 時
命名日期　　：2021 年 05 月 24 日 08 時
撤編日期　　：2021 年 05 月 28 日 08 時
登陸地點　　：印度

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
印度氣象局 (IMD)：70 kt
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)：65 kt ( Cat.1 )
海平面最低氣壓   ：972 百帕

  擾動編號資料  
93B.INVEST.15kts.1004mb.14.8N.88E

以上資料來自：IMD、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

老農民版夜神月

EC系集以多報穩定的十分看好其發展
GFS系集則可能因為系統剛生成,訊號仍較不太穩定

老農民版夜神月

決定報的部分,兩大數值均支持93B發展其中GFS預測巔峰約956百帕,EC預測巔峰約971百帕

老農民版夜神月

EC06Z系集


及找不太到LLCC的風場

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JTWC00Z評級Medium

  (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
16.1N 89.1E, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM,
INDIA. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 1951Z AMSR2 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH FLARING CONVECTION
AND BROAD VORTICITY ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A WESTERLY WIND BURST
ACROSS THE BAY OF BENGAL. ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT POSITION IS
UNCERTAIN, MODELS AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS INDICATE THAT THERE
IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 30C.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93B WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
GENERALLY NORTHWARD AS IT STEADILY INTENSIFIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

dom

JTWC06Z升格TD

93B INVEST 210522 0600 15.9N 89.1E IO 25 1006

dom

IMD認為發展為熱帶氣旋機會高

老農民版夜神月

GFS06Z系集