簽到天數: 1650 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
|
老農民版夜神月|2021-2-13 06:34
|
顯示全部樓層
MFR預測將來24小時整個系統將持續土崩瓦解之勢
+12H後已僅是中帶熱帶風暴下限,+24H後成為填塞中氣旋
WTIO30 FMEE 121833
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 31/10/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (FARAJI)
2.A POSITION 2021/02/12 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.6 S / 80.9 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.5/W 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 370 SW: 280 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 185 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/13 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 79.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 85 NW: 65
24H: 2021/02/13 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 78.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 55
36H: 2021/02/14 06 UTC: 18.8 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 55
48H: 2021/02/14 18 UTC: 18.6 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
60H: 2021/02/15 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
72H: 2021/02/15 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/02/16 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 65.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=3.5
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, FARAJI CLOUD PATTERN KEEP ON DETERIORATING
UNDER THE DETRIMENTAL INFLUENCE OF THE NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR. LAST
MICROWAVE DATA (1336Z MICROWAVE) SHOW THAT THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS
QUITE DISTANT FROM THE MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LACKING RELIABLE
ASCAT DATA, II IS DIFFICULT TO ASSES THE REAL INTENSITY OF FARAJI.
GIVEN THE 1230Z PARTIAL SMAP SWATH WHICH INDICATES MAXIMUM WINDS
AROUND 40KT, THE CURRENT 50KT INTENSITY MAY BE OVERESTIMATED.
WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, THE STEERING FLOW LOWERED INTO THE
LOW LAYERS AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH IS CURRENTLY
REGAINING CONTROL OF THE TRACK INDUCING A GENERAL WESTERLY
ORIENTATION. ON SUNDAY, A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN NUMERICAL
MODELS, WHOSE DISPERSION IS LOWER.
FARAJI KEEPS UNDERGOING A DEEP NORTHWESTERN SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN
INTRUSION OF DRY AIR, WHICH IS WEAKENING ITS STRUCTURE. THE DRY AIR
REMAINS WELL PRESENT OVER THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING A FORECAST OF STRONG
WEAKENING. THE MAIN GUIDANCES GIVE LESS AND LESS CREDIT TO THE
HYPOTHESIS OF A REINTENSIFICATION OF FARAJI.
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT ANY PARTICULAR RISK FOR THE INHABITED
LANDS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.= 
|
|
