老農民版夜神月

JTWC已兩報T6.0,即將升格C4

TPXS10 PGTW 070426

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI)

B. 07/0545Z

C. 14.82S

D. 79.73E

E. THREE/MET7

F. T6.0/6.0/D2.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY B YIELDS
AN E# OF 5.5. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR B, TO YIELD A DT OF 6.5.  
MET AND PT YIELD 6.0. DBO MET.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   07/0051Z  14.85S  79.67E  MMHS


   YOUNG

dom

JTWC06Z升格C4
19S.FARAJI.115kts-944mb.149S.799E

老農民版夜神月

在Faraji升格C4後，成為繼05P.Yasa以來，2020到2021年南半球風季第二個四級颶風以上強度的TC

19S FARAJI 210207 0600 14.9S 79.9E SHEM 115 944

dom

對流變得稀薄，JTWC12Z稍將強度下調至110節

19S FARAJI 210207 1200 14.8S 80.0E SHEM 110 946

老農民版夜神月

MFR18Z略微調降定強至100KT,並預測巔峰已過,將逐步減弱

FKIO20 FMEE 071812
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20210207/1812Z
TCAC: REUNION
TC: FARAJI
ADVISORY NR: 2021/10
OBS PSN: 07/1800Z S1435 E08017
CB: WI 160NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL500

MOV: ENE 04KT
INTST CHANGE: WKN
C: 945HPA
MAX WIND: 100KT
FCST PSN +6 HR: 08/0000Z S1431 E08040
FCST MAX WIND +6 HR: 100KT
FCST PSN +12 HR: 08/0600Z S1427 E08107
FCST MAX WIND +12 HR: 100KT
FCST PSN +18 HR: 08/1200Z S1424 E08141
FCST MAX WIND +18 HR: 95KT
FCST PSN +24 HR: 08/1800Z S1423 E08219
FCST MAX WIND +24 HR: 90KT
RMK: NIL.

NXT MSG: 20210208/0000Z=

老農民版夜神月

JTWC則認定18Z重返C4,定強115KT,中心氣壓945百帕

SH, 19, 2021020718, , BEST, 0, 146S, 802E, 115, 945, TY,

TPXS10 PGTW 071821

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI)

B. 07/1745Z

C. 14.55S

D. 80.16E

E. THREE/GOES-IO

F. T5.5/6.0/D1.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.0. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR LG, TO YIELD
A DT OF 5.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   HEINS

dom

JTWC00Z將強度稍為下調至110節，而MFR則維持100節，底層仍然還好

19S.FARAJI.21020800.110kts.948mb.14.3S.80.9E.

TPXS10 PGTW 080020

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI)

B. 07/2345Z

C. 14.34S

D. 80.78E

E. FIVE/GOES-IO

F. T5.0/6.0/W0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 34A/PBO LARGE EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY MG
YIELDS AN E# OF 4.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR LG, TO YIELD
A DT OF 5.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
07/1951Z 14.48S 80.30E AMS2
07/2017Z 14.55S 80.48E ATMS


HEINS

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20210208/0012Z
TCAC: REUNION
TC: FARAJI
ADVISORY NR: 2021/11
OBS PSN: 08/0000Z S1419 E08048
CB: WI 160NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL510
MOV: ENE 06KT
INTST CHANGE: NC
C: 946HPA
MAX WIND: 100KT

dom

MFR0600Z再次提升定強至105kts,上望110kts

FKIO20 FMEE 080619

TC ADVISORY

DTG: 20210208/0619Z

TCAC: REUNION

TC: FARAJI

ADVISORY NR: 2021/12

OBS PSN: 08/0600Z S1418 E08118

CB: WI 150NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL540

MOV: ENE 07KT

INTST CHANGE: NC

C: 940HPA

MAX WIND: 105KT

FCST PSN +6 HR: 08/1200Z S1421 E08150

FCST MAX WIND +6 HR: 108KT

FCST PSN +12 HR: 08/1800Z S1424 E08225

FCST MAX WIND +12 HR: 110KT

FCST PSN +18 HR: 09/0000Z S1425 E08305

FCST MAX WIND +18 HR: 105KT

FCST PSN +24 HR: 09/0600Z S1431 E08346

FCST MAX WIND +24 HR: 100KT

RMK: NIL.

NXT MSG: 20210208/1200Z=