19S.Faraji 巔峰達VITC 南半球新風季第二個C5

老農民版夜神月 · 2021-2-10 04:03

JTWC則於18Z降格C3,定強110KT

19S FARAJI 210209 1800 14.6S 84.7E SHEM 110 951

20210209.1920.himawari-8.ir.19S.FARAJI.110kts.951mb.14.6S.84.7E.100pc.jpg

dom · 2021-2-10 09:03

JTWC00Z降格C2

19S FARAJI 210210 0000 15.1S 85.0E SHEM 95 962

TPXS10 PGTW 100003

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI)

B. 09/2315Z

C. 15.28S

D. 84.91E

E. SIX/GOES-IO

F. T4.5/5.0/W2.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 46A/PBO EMBD CNTR/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN LG YIELDS A
DT OF 4.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

RHOADES

dom · 2021-2-10 09:05

MFR0008Z將其降格為熱帶氣旋

FKIO20 FMEE 100008
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20210210/0008Z
TCAC: REUNION
TC: FARAJI
ADVISORY NR: 2021/19
OBS PSN: 10/0000Z S1459 E08448
CB: WI 200NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL540
MOV: SE 05KT
INTST CHANGE: WKN
C: 962HPA
MAX WIND: 85KT
FCST PSN +6 HR: 10/0600Z S1515 E08504
FCST MAX WIND +6 HR: 80KT
FCST PSN +12 HR: 10/1200Z S1531 E08516
FCST MAX WIND +12 HR: 75KT
FCST PSN +18 HR: 10/1800Z S1546 E08518
FCST MAX WIND +18 HR: 70KT
FCST PSN +24 HR: 11/0000Z S1600 E08512
FCST MAX WIND +24 HR: 65KT
RMK: NIL.
NXT MSG: 20210210/0600Z=

蜜露 · 2021-2-10 13:06

20210208.1800.msg-1.ir.19S.FARAJI.130kts.928mb.14.2S.82E.100pc.jpg

20210208.173000.terra.modis.Vapor.tc2119SFARAJI.covg83p9.unknown.res1km.jpg

佛朗基也達到了Cat.5 型態來看他應該只稍弱於亞莎

老農民版夜神月 · 2021-2-11 06:04

今晚的Faraji有迴光返照之態,T值止跌回升到了5.0,雲圖上的型態也比昨日稍微好看了些

TPXS10 PGTW 102125

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI)

B. 10/2045Z

C. 15.91S

D. 85.15E

E. FOUR/GOES-IO

F. T5.0/5.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. LG EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 5.5. MET AGREES. PT
YIELDS 5.0. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
10/1559Z 15.70S 85.32E MMHS

HEINS

20210210.2130.himawari-8.ir.19S.FARAJI.90kts.964mb.15.9S.85.4E.100pc.jpg

20210210.1215.gpm.89pct89h89v.19S.FARAJI.90kts.964mb.15.5S.85.3E.025pc.jpg

老農民版夜神月 · 2021-2-11 06:10

MFR認為將快速減弱,24H內減弱為強烈熱帶風暴
JTWC則認為減弱的將明顯緩慢許多,24H內維持C2

FKIO20 FMEE 101803
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20210210/1803Z
TCAC: REUNION
TC: FARAJI
ADVISORY NR: 2021/22
OBS PSN: 10/1800Z S1548 E08517
CB: WI 150NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL540
MOV: S 03KT
INTST CHANGE: WKN
C: 968HPA
MAX WIND: 80KT
FCST PSN +6 HR: 11/0000Z S1603 E08503
FCST MAX WIND +6 HR: 75KT
FCST PSN +12 HR: 11/0600Z S1616 E08446
FCST MAX WIND +12 HR: 70KT
FCST PSN +18 HR: 11/1200Z S1626 E08426
FCST MAX WIND +18 HR: 60KT
FCST PSN +24 HR: 11/1800Z S1635 E08401
FCST MAX WIND +24 HR: 50KT
RMK: NIL.
NXT MSG: 20210211/0000Z=