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天篷大元帥|2020-8-28 11:12
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本帖最後由 天篷大元帥 於 2020-8-28 11:16 編輯
受地形摩擦力影響，登陸後不到24小時減弱為熱帶性低氣壓，同時國家颶風中心將不再發報。
原文：
000
WTNT43 KNHC 280234
TCDAT3
Tropical Depression Laura Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1000 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020
Laura has continued to spin down after being over land for nearly a
day. Surface observations no longer support tropical storm
intensity, and therefore the system is being downgraded to a
tropical depression. The cyclone should become a post-tropical
low within a couple of days, and then transform into an
extratropical cyclone while moving off the U.S. east coast. The
official forecast shows some restrengthening in 2-4 days due to
baroclinic processes. However, by the end of the forecast period,
the system should be absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone to
the east of the Canadian Maritimes.
Laura continues to move north-northeastward or at about 015/13 kt.
A turn toward the northeast and east-northeast with increasing
forward speed is likely while the cyclone becomes embedded in the
stronger westerly flow. The official track forecast follows the
latest dynamical model consensus.
There is a continued threat of flooding from Laura for the next
couple of days. This is the last NHC advisory on Laura. Future
information on this system, including the rainfall threat, can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center
beginning at 4 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT3, WMO header
WTNT33 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov
Key Messages:
1. Additional rainfall will continue to lead to flash flooding
along small streams, urban areas, roadways, and minor to moderate
river flooding across portions of Louisiana, Mississippi and
Arkansas. The heavy rainfall threat and flash and urban flooding
potential will spread northeastward into the middle-Mississippi,
lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and Mid-Atlantic States Friday and
Saturday.
2. A few tornadoes remain possible this evening across eastern
Arkansas, western Tennessee, northern Mississippi, and the Missouri
Bootheel. The risk for a few tornadoes is expected to redevelop
Friday afternoon into the evening across parts of the Mid-South and
Tennessee Valley regions.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/0300Z 35.1N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 28/1200Z 36.3N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 29/0000Z 37.3N 87.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/1200Z 38.0N 82.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 30/0000Z 38.5N 75.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 30/1200Z 41.5N 67.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 31/0000Z 44.0N 60.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 01/0000Z 48.0N 52.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
機器翻譯(翻譯粗劣僅供參考)：
000
WTNT43 KNHC 280234
TCDAT3
熱帶低壓勞拉討論數33
新創建國家颶風中心邁阿密FL AL132020
CDT下午1000點2020年8月27日星期四
勞拉（Laura）在陸地上近一段時間後繼續旋轉。
天。地表觀測不再支持熱帶風暴
強度，因此系統被降級為
熱帶低氣壓。旋風應該變成後熱帶
幾天之內變低，然後轉變為
在離開美國東海岸時發生的溫帶氣旋。的
官方預測顯示，由於
斜壓過程。但是，在預測期結束時，
該系統應被較大的溫帶氣旋吸收
加拿大海事東部。
勞拉（Laura）繼續向北或大約015/13 kt前進。
向東北和東北向的轉向
旋風分離器嵌入到旋風分離器中時可能會向前移動
西風流動更強。官方賽道預測如下
最新的動力學模型共識。
接下來的一刻，勞拉（Laura）仍有洪水威脅
幾天 這是NHC關於Laura的最新諮詢。未來
有關該系統的信息（包括降雨威脅）可以是
在天氣預報中心發布的公共諮詢中可以找到
從CDT 4 AM開始，在AWIPS標頭TCPAT3，WMO標頭下
WTNT33 KWNH，網址為http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov
關鍵信息：
1.額外的降雨將繼續導致山洪氾濫
沿著小溪流，市區，道路以及輕微到中等
路易斯安那州，密西西比州和
阿肯色州。強降雨威脅，山洪暴發和城市洪水
潛力將向東北擴散到密西西比州中部，
俄亥俄州和田納西河谷下游以及大西洋中部各州星期五和
星期六。
2.今晚東部地區仍有可能發生龍捲風
阿肯色州，田納西州西部，密西西比州北部和密蘇里州
Bootheel。可能會再次爆發龍捲風的風險
週五下午到晚上，橫跨中南部分地區和
田納西谷地區。
預測位置和最大風
INIT 28 / 0300Z 35.1N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH ...內陸
12H 28 / 1200Z 36.3N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH ...內陸
24H 29 / 0000Z 37.3N 87.8W 25 KT 30 MPH ... INLAND
36H 29 / 1200Z 38.0N 82.3W 25 KT 30 MPH ...
48H 30 / 0000Z 38.5N 75.5W 25 KT 30 MPH ... POST-TROP / EXTRATROP
60H 30 / 1200Z 41.5N 67.5W 35 KT 40 MPH ... POST-TROP / EXTRATROP
72H 31 / 0000Z 44.0N 60.5W 45 KT 50 MPH ...後衝/外衝
96H 01 / 0000Z 48.0N 52.0W 40 KT 45 MPH ... POST-TROP / EXTRATROP
120H 02 / 0000Z ...已分發
$$
預報員帕施
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