19S.Fantala 路徑曲折新科南印風王誕生

Meow · 2016-4-23 02:59

MFR這麼興奮……！:lol

WTIO30 FMEE 221815
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 47/8/20152016
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FANTALA)
2.A POSITION 2016/04/22 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.8 S / 57.3 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-NORTH-WEST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/S 0.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 976 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :9 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2016/04/23 06 UTC: 12.6 S / 56.1 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2016/04/23 18 UTC: 12.3 S / 54.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2016/04/24 06 UTC: 11.6 S / 53.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2016/04/24 18 UTC: 10.5 S / 51.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2016/04/25 06 UTC: 9.3 S / 49.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2016/04/25 18 UTC: 8.4 S / 47.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2016/04/26 18 UTC: 7.2 S / 43.9 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISSIPATING
120H: 2016/04/27 18 UTC: 5.8 S / 41.4 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISSIPATING
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0, CI=4.5
THE DRY ENVIRONMENT THAT SURROUNDS FANTALA HAS REDUCED THE SIZE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED OF THE SYSTEM. IT ONLY REMAINS A CDO ABOUT 100 NM OF WIDTH. WITHIN THIS CDO, 85GHZ 1519Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INTENSE CONVECTION RING SURROUNDING BY A 5MN TINY EYE.
THE BUILDING OF A HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL CELL IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN A LOW/MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE BASIN. THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE PROGRESSIVELY A SOUTHEASTWARD STEERING FLOW. SO, FANTALA IS FORECASTED TO PROGRESSIVELY ACCELERATE TOWARD THE WESTNORTHWEST.
ON THIS TRACK, FANTALA SHOULD EVOLVE NORTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERN WIND BELT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SO, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOUD REMAINS WEAK. HOWEVER, FANTALA IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A TRACK THAT IT HAD ALREADY FOLLOWED TWICE...! THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME VERY WEAK ! LAST, ASSOCIATED TO THE LOW/MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, THE SOUTHEASTWARD STEERING FLOW SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY DRY UP FANTALA'S ENVIRONMENT. SO, WITH THESE UNFAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (ESPECIALLY FOR A MIDGET SYSTEM), FANTALA IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN VERY RAPIDLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

複製代碼

預期Fantala將走向它已經走過2次的路徑……！OHC要開始變得非常弱！

蜜露 · 2016-4-23 11:26

本帖最後由蜜露於 2016-4-23 11:33 編輯

今天GFS 90+強度預報明顯比昨天下修了.

如果Fantala能持續到非洲本土..那就罕見了..

預報裡頭.是朝著坦尚尼亞..方向前進. 一般氣旋偶爾會影響到莫三比克.

坦尚尼亞..沒有記載熱帶氣旋侵襲..
OHC 、赤向流出都轉差

坦尚尼亞這國家,一般我們會想到動物頻道的非洲原野節目.
獅子、斑馬、胡狼、鬣狗、羚、大象...以及刺塊樹、非洲高峰-吉力馬札羅

t02436 · 2016-4-24 11:57

MFR 00Z直接降格TD判死，並發布最終報。

WTIO30 FMEE 240034

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 52/8/20152016

1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (EX-FANTALA)

2.A POSITION 2016/04/24 AT 0000 UTC:

WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.1 S / 53.8 E

(ELEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL

EIGHT DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : WEST-NORTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/2.0/W 2.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: SE: 110 SW: 110 NW:

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2016/04/24 12 UTC: 10.5 S / 52.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW

24H: 2016/04/25 00 UTC: 9.7 S / 50.9 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW

36H: 2016/04/25 12 UTC: 9.2 S / 48.9 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW

48H: 2016/04/26 00 UTC: 9.0 S / 46.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW

60H: 2016/04/26 12 UTC: 8.4 S / 44.4 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=1.5, CI=2.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO

DECREASE.

THE ASCAT DATA AT 23/18.20Z CONFIRM THIS ANALYSIS AND THE SYSTEM HAS

BEEN DOWNGRADE TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE.

EX-FANTALA IS CURRENTLY MOVING WEST-NORTH-WESTWARD, NORTH OF THE

LOW/MID TROPOSPHERE HIGH PRESSURE BELT, AND IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE

ON THIS TRACK UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ACCORDING TO THE UNFAVOURABLE ENVIRONNEMENTAL CONDITIONS, MAINLY THE

SURROUDING DRY AIR, THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO REGENERATE.

THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ISSUED BY THE RSCM LA REUNION FOR THIS

SYSTEM.=