krichard2011

最近這一兩天結構真的進步很多
JTWC C5 達標
MFR 也上調到了 ITC 的上限 115 KT

1. SH, 19, 2016041712,   , BEST,   0, 103S,  517E, 140,  918, ST,  34, NEQ,   80,   95,  100,   80, 1009,  190,  10,   0,  10,   S,   0,    ,   0,   0,    FANTALA, D,
   
2. SH, 19, 2016041712,   , BEST,   0, 103S,  517E, 140,  918, ST,  50, NEQ,   40,   45,   40,   25, 1009,  190,  10,   0,  10,   S,   0,    ,   0,   0,    FANTALA, D,
   
3. SH, 19, 2016041712,   , BEST,   0, 103S,  517E, 140,  918, ST,  64, NEQ,   20,   25,   25,   15, 1009,  190,  10,   0,  10,   S,   0,    ,   0,   0,    FANTALA, D,

複製代碼

1. WTIO30 FMEE 171232
   
2. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
   
3. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
   
4. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/8/20152016
   
5. 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FANTALA)
   
6. 2.A POSITION 2016/04/17 AT 1200 UTC:
   
7. WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.4 S / 51.7 E
   
8. (TEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES
   
9. EAST)
   
10. MOVEMENT : WEST-NORTH-WEST 10 KT
    
11. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.5/6.5/D 0.5/6 H
    
12. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 932 HPA
    
13. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 115 KT
    
14. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM
    
15. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
    
16. 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 390 SW: 330 NW: 130
    
17. 34 KT NE: 90 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 90
    
18. 48 KT NE: 60 SE: 80 SW: 90 NW: 60
    
19. 64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
    
20. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 300 KM
    
21. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
    
22. 
    
23. 1.B FORECASTS:
    
24. 12H: 2016/04/18 00 UTC: 10.1 S / 50.7 E, MAX WIND=115 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
25. 24H: 2016/04/18 12 UTC: 9.9 S / 49.9 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
26. 36H: 2016/04/19 00 UTC: 10.2 S / 50.2 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
27. 48H: 2016/04/19 12 UTC: 10.5 S / 50.9 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
28. 60H: 2016/04/20 00 UTC: 11.5 S / 52.5 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
29. 72H: 2016/04/20 12 UTC: 12.7 S / 54.1 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
30. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
    
31. 96H: 2016/04/21 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 56.9 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
32. 120H: 2016/04/22 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 59.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
    
33. 
    
34. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
    
35. T=CI=6.5+
    
36. OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, FANTALA HAS INTENSIFIED ONCE AGAIN WITH A
    
37. IMPROVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EQUATORWARD. EYE HAS
    
38. WARMED UP. 3 HR MEAN DT IS AT 6.6 AND RAW DT IS AT 7.0 SINCE 1100Z.
    
39. FANTALA IMPACTS NOW SEVERELY FARQUAHR ARCHIPELAGO. FANTALA IS
    
40. FORESCASTED TO CROSS OVER THE ARCHIPELAGO DURING THIS NIGHT WITHOUT
    
41. WEAKEN. IN ADDITION TO GUSTS AROUND 300 KM/H THE STORM SURGE SHOULD
    
42. REACH 2 METERS LOCALLY, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE CORE.
    
43. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS NORTHWESTWARDS TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN
    
44. AND NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF A HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL CELL LOCATED SOUTH OF
    
45. MADAGASCAR, WITH A RIDGE AXIS OVER MADAGASCAR. TOMOROW, THIS CELL IS
    
46. FORECASTED TO SHIFT PROGRESSIVELY EASTWARD AND LEAVE ROOM FOR A MIDLATITUDE
    
47. TROUGH. FANTALA SHOULD BE LOCATED WITHIN A COL WITH OPPOSITE
    
48. STEERING FLOWS. SO, FANTALA IS FORESCASTED TO BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN THIS
    
49. NIGHT WHEN IT SHOULD TRANSIT CLOSER THE FARQUAHR ISLAND. MONDAY
    
50. NIGHT, FANTALA SHOULD STOP ITS NORSTWESTWARD TRACK AND BEGIN A SHARP
    
51. TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST UNDER THE NORTHEASTERN STEERING FLOW OF A
    
52. BUILDING MID-LEVEL NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. FROM TUESDAY, FANTALA
    
53. SHOULD CONTINUE ITS SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER THE TWICE
    
54. INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH-EAST AND
    
55. AHEAD A WIDE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
    
56. THE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN ALWAYS CONDUCIVE UP TO TUESDAY.
    
57. FANTALA TAKES BENEFIT FROM A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE DIVERGENCE
    
58. IS VERY GOOD AND SEVERAL FAST SHORT WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD
    
59. TRANSIT SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND EVEN TEMPORALLY INCREASE THE
    
60. POLERWARD OUTFLOW. ONLY SELF INDUCED SST COOLING AND EYEWALL
    
61. REPLACEMENT CYCLE COULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
    
62. WEDNESDAY, WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, THE UPPER
    
63. LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY BECOME LESS FAVOURABLE WITH A
    
64. GRADUAL INCREASING NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. FANTALA
    
65. SHOULD BEGIN A WEAKENING PHASE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY UP TO THURSDAY.

複製代碼

krichard2011

最近一張底層看的出來 CDO 非常扎實
並且看的到Groupe Farquhar 就在眼牆南側
可惜沒有氣象站 如果有實測的話 相信數據應該會很可觀

Meow

由索米NPP衛星在2016年4月17日截取馬達加斯加東北方的強烈熱帶氣旋Fantala。


https://commons.wikimedia.org/wi ... 016-04-17_0955Z.jpg

Meow

風之聲原文：https://www.facebook.com/typhoonbbs/posts/831170750360449

法國氣象局升格Fantala為特強熱帶氣旋，10分鐘最大風速135節、中心氣壓910百帕；聯合颱風警報中心評為1分鐘最大風速150節。以風速論，Fantala超越2015年Eunice成為法國評價西南印度洋史上最強熱帶氣旋，也是美國評價和1995年Daryl-Agnielle並列南印度洋史上最強。

1天前開始Fantala逐漸擺脫高層風眼不清晰的毛病，自4月17日白天起呈現深邃的風眼。中心對流雲區也不再東寬西窄，形成了明顯對稱的深對流環，底層掃描更呈現強悍的眼牆。Fantala在當地傍晚（台北/香港時間21:00左右）就達到形態上的巔峰並維持相當長時間，使得法國和美國相繼給予極高評價。

未來動向是Fantala讓預報員最頭疼的地方，因為環境條件將在之後幾天變得極其複雜，模式預報如ECMWF、GFS更是每一報都呈現截然不同的結果。除了目前比較肯定1天後將折返以外，到底Fantala會走向何方實在拿不出主意，有往東南遠去、也有往莫三比克/莫桑比克前進的。

只有數十居民的法夸爾環礁數小時前經歷了Fantala的風眼，由於此系統南側風圈比北側大，馬達加斯加北部也正受到Fantala影響。一些模式預報最糟的情形是幾天後再經過馬達加斯加並影響葛摩/科摩羅，若真發生只能盼Fantala不要讓這些窮國有重大災情。

Meow

1. WTIO30 FMEE 171908
   
2. 
   
3. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
   
4. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
   
5. 
   
6. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/8/20152016
   
7. 1.A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FANTALA)
   
8. 
   
9. 2.A POSITION 2016/04/17 AT 1800 UTC:
   
10. WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.8 S / 50.8 E
    
11. (NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
    
12. MOVEMENT : WEST-NORTH-WEST 10 KT
    
13. 
    
14. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 7.5/7.5/D 1.0/6 H
    
15. 
    
16. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 910 HPA
    
17. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 135 KT
    
18. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :20 KM
    
19. 
    
20. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
    
21. 28 KT NE: 110 SE: 300 SW: 370 NW: 190
    
22. 34 KT NE: 80 SE: 130 SW: 180 NW: 100
    
23. 48 KT NE: 60 SE: 90 SW: 110 NW: 70
    
24. 64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 60
    
25. 
    
26. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 300 KM
    
27. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
    
28. 
    
29. 1.B FORECASTS:
    
30. 12H: 2016/04/18 06 UTC: 9.6 S / 49.5 E, MAX WIND=125 KT, VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
31. 24H: 2016/04/18 18 UTC: 9.8 S / 49.0 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
32. 36H: 2016/04/19 06 UTC: 10.2 S / 49.4 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
33. 48H: 2016/04/19 18 UTC: 10.8 S / 50.3 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
34. 60H: 2016/04/20 06 UTC: 11.7 S / 52.0 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
35. 72H: 2016/04/20 18 UTC: 13.0 S / 53.4 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
36. 
    
37. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
    
38. 96H: 2016/04/21 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 55.4 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
    
39. 120H: 2016/04/22 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 56.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
    
40. 
    
41. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
    
42. T=7.5- CI=7.5
    
43. 
    
44. FANTALA MADE HISTORY (THE SWIO ONE'S) THIS EVENING. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION WAS AT 7.5 FROM 13 UTC TO 17 UTC (MET-7 IMAGERY) AND AT 7.0 SINCE 1730 UTC. 3H MEAN RAW DT IS AT 7.5 AT 16 UTC AND 1630 UTC. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS IMPRESSIVE WITH A WELL DEFINED EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC COLD CLOUD MASS. NEAR 15 UTC, THE EYE OF FANTALA PASSED DIRECTLY OVER THE MAIN ISLANDS OF FARQUAHR .. CURRENTLY THE EYEWALL IS PASSING JUST OFF THE SOUTH-WESTERN COASTS OF CERF AND SAINT-PIERRE ISLANDS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE MAIN ISLANDS FARQUAHR.
    
45. 
    
46. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS WEST-NORTH-WESTWARDS TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF A HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL CELL LOCATED SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR, WITH A RIDGE AXIS OVER MADAGASCAR. TOMOROW, THIS CELL IS FORECASTED TO SHIFT PROGRESSIVELY EASTWARD AND LEAVE ROOM FOR A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. FANTALA SHOULD BE LOCATED WITHIN A COL WITH OPPOSITE STEERING FLOWS. SO, FANTALA IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MONDAY NIGHT, FANTALA SHOULD STOP ITS NORSTWESTWARD TRACK AND BEGIN A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST UNDER THE NORTHEASTERN STEERING FLOW OF A BUILDING MID-LEVEL NEAR- EQUATORIAL RIDGE.
    
47. 
    
48. GIVENT THE ONGOING TREND, THE POINT OF RECURVING HAS AGAIN SHIFT WESTWARDS ... AND IT MAY BE BE POSSIBLE THAT IT COULD EVEN BE MORE TO THE WEST ... CLOSE TO THE COSMOLEDO AND ASTOVE ISLANDS (SEYCHELLES) LOCATED TO THE EAST-SOUTH-EAST OF ALDABRA.
    
49. 
    
50. FROM TUESDAY, FANTALA SHOULD CONTINUE ITS SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER THE TWICE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH-EAST AND AHEAD A WIDE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
    
51. THE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN ALWAYS CONDUCIVE UP TO TUESDAY. FANTALA TAKES BENEFIT FROM A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE DIVERGENCE IS VERY GOOD AND SEVERAL FAST SHORT WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD TRANSIT SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND EVEN TEMPORALLY INCREASE THE POLERWARD OUTFLOW. ONLY SELF INDUCED SST COOLING AND EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE COULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
    
52. 
    
53. WEDNESDAY, WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, THE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY BECOME LESS FAVOURABLE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASING NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. FANTALA SHOULD BEGIN A WEAKENING PHASE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY UP TO THURSDAY.

複製代碼

krichard2011

不知不覺就破紀錄了
這樣說起來 最近幾年幾乎年年都在破紀錄的樣子...
來一張夜間的可見光衛星雲圖
加上今天是農曆12日 月六反射的亮度充足
Fantala 的環流清晰可見
甚至還捕捉到閃電 眼牆對流之劇烈由此可見

krichard2011

稍早掃出來的底層
Fantal 旋出來的 旋臂相當厚實
但其螺旋雨帶幾乎圍繞在核心的周圍
不排除有進一步發展成外眼牆的可能性
其結構相當完整扎實 且對稱
這種型態在南半球相當少見