tpm630

補JTWC初報報文，其實00Z已經45kts了

WTXS31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FANTALA) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/111251ZAPR2016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FANTALA) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111800Z --- NEAR 12.9S 71.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S 71.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 13.0S 70.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 13.1S 68.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 13.1S 67.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 13.1S 66.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 12.7S 64.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 12.4S 62.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 12.0S 60.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 71.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FANTALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 354 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONVERGING INTO
A COLD DENSE OVERCAST (CDO). A 111945Z PARTIAL AMSU-B 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED
CONVECTION PRIMARILY ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES,
WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON RECENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC 19S IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
POLEWARD AND INCREASING EQUATORWARD, OUTFLOW AND LOW (10 TO 15
KNOTS) EFFECTIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE VWS VECTOR IS FROM
THE EAST AS EVIDENCED BY THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO
THE WEST OF THE CENTER. TC FANTALA IS BEING STEERED WESTWARD ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD UNDER THE SAME STEERING INFLUENCE
THROUGH TAU 48. AFTERWARDS, TC FANTALA WILL BEGIN MOVING A BIT MORE
WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE STR BEGINS TO REORIENT TO A SOUTHEAST-
NORTHWEST ORIENTATION. AS THE STR REORIENTS, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW AS
IT ENTERS A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE STR TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHWEST BY TAU
96. TC FANTALA WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AT A SLIGHTLY
FASTER RATE THAN CLIMATOLOGY AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES
AS A POINT SOURCE DEVELOPS OVER TOP OF THE LLCC. BETWEEN TAUS 24-36
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY, THOUGH CLOSER TO THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE, AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
WHICH GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 48, THE ATMOSPHERE
AGAIN MOISTENS, ALLOWING TC 19S TO INTENSIFY TO PEAK INTENSITY OF 95
KTS BY TAU 72. AS THE FORWARD MOTION BEGINS TO SLOW BY TAU 96
THROUGH TAU 120, TC FANTALA WILL INDUCE A LOCALIZED REDUCTION IN
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN
GRADUAL WEAKENING AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, BUT
INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN IN BOTH SPEED AND TRACK IN THE LONGER RANGE
FORECAST TAU'S LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 120900Z AND 122100Z. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A
(WTXS22 PGTW 111300).//
NNNN

老J很詳細的分析和預測~

1.  紅字（現況分析）：型態良好，CDO逐漸建立。 除了極向流出維持得很好，赤向流出也逐漸轉佳。不過儘管風切算低(10~15kt)，仍可看出風切造成整個系統偏西。風切大概是現在環境上唯一的缺陷。

CDO逐漸建立，整體環流小有利於整合發展



渦度泛白，底層尚建立中



高空環境良好，與昨天不同的是赤向流出也改善，因此幅散值由1、20上升到5、60




風切是目前最不穩定的部分，看得出深層對流一度是偏西的




老J ADT稍早分析到3.0

TPXS10 PGTW 120231

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FANTALA)

B. 12/0230Z

C. 13.16S

D. 70.23E

E. FIVE/MET7

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .65 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT YIELDING A 3.0.
DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   11/2034Z  13.25S  70.85E  AMS2


   LEMBKE

2.  藍字（路徑預測）：未來兩天Fantala持續沿副高脊北側穩定向西進行。之後由於副高脊重組的關係，Fantala會轉往西北西移動，而且速度會明顯放慢。

不知道STR(副高脊)和NER(近赤道脊)的位置是不是這樣? 不過從上面的風切圖可以看出Fantala其實就夾在這2個系統中間，不穩定的東風切疑似就是北側NER帶來的。



3.  紫紅（強度預測）：未來12小時內受惠於良好的高空環境強度增強頗快，24~36小時後受乾空氣影響強度增強略趨緩。48~72小時後乾空氣不再困擾，強度達到首次巔峰。4~5天後因移動緩慢加上進入低OHC海域，強度會略微下滑。不過之後應該還會接上槽線南轉，優良的流出應該能帶來二次巔峰(?

明天恐怕會受西側乾空氣影響


OHC良好，4、5天後才會靠近較低OHC海域


明天的中層明顯變乾



EC、GFS過去幾天已經連續多報出現950mb以上的強度。預測發展時間還相當多，強度最大巔峰應該會出現在接上槽線南轉前後

krichard2011

底層眼牆已經開始建構起來了
但強對流還沒繞完一圈
對流主要集中於西側
目前暫不能說是一個完整的風眼

目前北方水氣還算充足
但在西進的過程中須注意乾空氣對他的影響
行進路徑大多處於 OHC 較高區域
風切也有逐漸減弱的趨勢
目前多數數值模式皆看好後續發展

tpm630

下午一度開眼，T值上調4.0


但爛眼很快就消失，T值回降3.5，因為底層後來才算有個樣子。想說底層沒好，高層就開眼也太瞎了





第二報就升60kts，流出良好的颱風發展真的很驚人。巔峰暫上望120kts(Cat.4)


乾空氣問題逐漸浮現。Fantala正努力用良好的流出抵禦乾空氣...

t02436

MFR升格強烈熱帶風暴，巔峰持續上望強烈熱帶氣旋。

WTIO20 FMEE 121215

SECURITE

STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 12/04/2016

AT

1200 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 006/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).



STORM WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 12/04/2016 AT 1200 UTC.



PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8  (FANTALA)  988 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2 S / 68.8 E

(THIRTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND

SIXTY EIGHT    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC

MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT



THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP

TO 250 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN SECTOR AND 300 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN

SECTOR.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS  EXTENDING UP

TO 20 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN

QUADRANT, UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM

IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40

NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN

QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM

IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2016/04/13 AT 00 UTC:

13.0 S / 67.1 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H, VALID 2016/04/13 AT 12 UTC:

12.8 S / 65.6 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE



OTHER INFORMATIONS:

NIL.=

JTWC維持60節評價。

19S FANTALA 160412 1200  13.2S   68.9E SHEM   60   978

krichard2011

入夜對流爆發 底層也進步很多
風眼看似建立中 待對流繞完就有機會開風眼了
MFR 目前上看 115 KT 這隻潛力滿大的

WTIO30 FMEE 121229
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/8/20152016
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FANTALA)
2.A POSITION 2016/04/12 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2 S / 68.8 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 70 SE: 170 SW: 150 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 70
48 KT NE: SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2016/04/13 00 UTC: 13.0 S / 67.1 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2016/04/13 12 UTC: 12.8 S / 65.6 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2016/04/14 00 UTC: 12.7 S / 64.4 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2016/04/14 12 UTC: 12.6 S / 62.8 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2016/04/15 00 UTC: 12.4 S / 61.2 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2016/04/15 12 UTC: 12.3 S / 59.6 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2016/04/16 12 UTC: 11.8 S / 56.8 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2016/04/17 12 UTC: 11.0 S / 54.9 E, MAX WIND=115 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0-
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY WITH AN
IMPROVEMENT CDO PATTERN. THE LAST 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERIES (AMSR2
0807Z AND SSMI 0949Z) SHOW AN EYE FEATURE ALMOST CLOSED. THANKS TO
THESE DATA, THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS RAISED TO THE SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM STAGE.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO
MID LEVEL HIGHS LOCATED TO ITS SOUTH AND SOUTH-WEST. WITHIN THE NEXT
DAYS, THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOULD BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE
MERIDIAN WITH HIGHS WHICH SHOULD INCREASE IN THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE
SYSTEM AND THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER/MID TROUGH EAST OF 70E. IN RESPONSE,
FANTALA SHOULD CURVE EASTNORTHEASTWARD FROM TOMORROW. AT TERM OF
FORECAST, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
WITH THE WESTWARD SHIFTING OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE. UP TO SUNDAY,
AVAILABLE MODELS ARE OVERALL IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT
SOME DIFFERENCE PERSIST IN TERM OF SPEED. THE PRESENT FORECAST IS AN
INTERMEDIATE SCENARIO BETWEEN ECMWF AND GFS.
FANTALA IS FORESCASTED TO TRACKING BENEATH THE SUBTOPICAL RIDGE AND
BENEFIT FROM A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
SHOULD BECOME MARGINAL EQUATORWARD (BUT STILL GOOD TO THE SOUTH)
AND A NORTHWESTERLY CONSTRAINT IS EVEN POSSIBLE. THESE ELEMENTS COULD
SLOW DOWN THE INTENSIFICATION.

tpm630

09Z強度提升至80kts 巔峰上望125kts
一整天Fantala針眼一直若隱若現的
增強速度相對放慢 可能和偏乾的中層大氣有關
不過流出一直維持得很好 因此沒有受太多乾空氣影響
結構也更加對稱了

JTWC認為未來兩天的環境優良，低風切、高海溫、幅散佳，強度會達到顛峰
之後風切增強、流出轉差、OHC下降 強度會逐漸下滑

路徑上，未來2 3天機構信心度較高，沿副高北緣向西到西北西前進
之後行進速度可能會放慢，而且EC、GFS兩大機構的系集出現分歧 轉向與否 變數很大

REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 66.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (FANTALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 488 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT WITH DEEPENING CORE CONVECTION SURROUNDING A
5-NM EYE FEATURE THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXPANDING RADIAL OUTFLOW AND
AN INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC STRUCTURE. A 130252Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CORE CONVECTION NOW FULLY SURROUNDING THE MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 80 KNOTS
BASED ON CONCURRING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS)
FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE NOTED
IMPROVEMENT IN ALL IMAGERY. TC FANTALA IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ON A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, A BUILDING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE  
TO THE NORTH WILL SLOW THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE. TC 19S IS
TRACKING IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), RADIAL OUTFLOW, VERY FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS SUPPORTING CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION, REACHING A PEAK
OF 125 KNOTS. BEYOND TAU 72, INCREASING VWS AND DECREASED OUTFLOW
WILL BEGIN A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED IN THE OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO LEADING TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z AND 140900Z.//
NNNN

Meow

2016年4月13日索米NPP截取羅德里格斯東北方熱帶氣旋Fantala。


https://commons.wikimedia.org/wi ... 016-04-13_0930Z.jpg

Meow

最大風速80節、中心氣壓963百帕，不過法國氣象局預測18日早上開始會急轉彎並大幅減弱。