老農民版夜神月

風場支持(第一張風場有大片40KT以上風旗,第二張亦有35KT左右風旗)
DT,CI2.5,JTWC06Z沒升格25S..這..有點過分了啊

TPXS12 PGTW 070621

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91S (IMAN)

B. 07/0545Z

C. 23.01S

D. 54.84E

E. FIVE/MET8

F. T2.0/2.5  STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT YIELD 2.0. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   HEINS

老農民版夜神月

JTWC終於，終於參考了風場，18Z升格25S，定強45節

25S TWENTYFIVE 210307 1800 24.4S 58.0E SHEM 45 991

TPXS12 PGTW 071830

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91S (IMAN)

B. 07/1800Z

C. 24.20S

D. 57.49E

E. FIVE/MET8

F. T2.0/2.5/D1.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0 - 1.5

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   07/1248Z  23.78S  56.83E  SSMS


   YOUNG

老農民版夜神月

MFR認為即將成為後熱帶氣旋

老農民版夜神月

JTWC首報認為此刻即巔峰，並將逐漸轉化為溫帶氣旋

WTXS31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (IMAN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (IMAN) WARNING NR 001   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071800Z --- NEAR 24.4S 58.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.4S 58.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 25.7S 60.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 27.3S 61.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 29.1S 63.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 24.7S 58.5E.
07MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (IMAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 278 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON A 071724Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS. TC
25S HAS CONSOLIDATED AND INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WHILE
TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST AND AN APPROACHING, DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AS THE APPROACHING TROUGH OVERTAKES THE SYSTEM. WHILE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS STRONG AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE AT AROUND 27C, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS VERY HIGH (GREATER
THAN 30 KNOTS). THE CONTINUED IMPACT OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND PASSAGE OVER COOL WATER ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH NO OFFSETTING BAROCLINIC
SUPPORT FROM INTERACTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT REGARDING THE FORECAST
TRACK, WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z AND 082100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S
(HABANA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 062230).//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

JTWC將升格TS的時間提前到了07/12Z,儘管昨天午前的風場其實就已經支持升格

SH, 25, 2021030706, , BEST, 0, 228S, 550E, 30, 1001, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 180, 55, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
SH, 25, 2021030712, , BEST, 0, 234S, 562E, 40, 996, TS, 34, NEQ, 85, 100, 90, 75, 1006, 200, 65, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
SH, 25, 2021030718, , BEST, 0, 244S, 580E, 45, 991, TS, 34, NEQ, 85, 100, 90, 75, 1002, 200, 45, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, TWENTYFIVE, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, TRANSITIONED, shF12021 to sh252021,

老農民版夜神月

MFR判定已於06Z成為後熱帶氣旋

DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE numéro 14
(IMAN)

Vents maximaux (moyennés sur 10 minutes) estimés sur mer: 75 km/h.
Rafales maximales estimées sur mer: 100 km/h.
Pression estimée au centre: 996 hPa.
Position le 08 mars à 10 heures locales: 26.5 Sud / 61.0 Est.

WTIO22 FMEE 080629
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/03/2021
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 08/03/2021 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14 (IMAN) 996 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.5 S / 61.0 E
(TWENTY SIX    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/03/08 AT 18 UTC:
27.7 S / 62.1 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 50 NM

24H, VALID 2021/03/09 AT 06 UTC:
29.1 S / 63.1 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

dom

JTWC09Z發佈Final Warning

WTXS31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (IMAN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (IMAN) WARNING NR 003   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   080600Z --- NEAR 27.0S 61.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 29 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 27.0S 61.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 29.3S 63.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 27.6S 61.9E.
08MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (IMAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 469 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 29 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY ERODED AS IT
ACCELERATED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD CHARACTERIZED BY UNRAVELED/DISPERSED
RAIN BANDS AND WARMED CONVECTIVE TOPS. THE INITIAL POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 080437Z 25KM
RESOLUTION ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS
DRIFTED INTO COOLER (27C AND DECREASING) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
STRONG (40KT+) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE ASCAT PASS ALSO INDICATES THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME IRREGULAR AND GROSSLY ELONGATED WITH
THE 35KT WIND FIELD EXPANDED UP TO 100NM. TC PHASE CLASSIFICATION
WORKSHEET INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS NOW SUBTROPICAL AND WILL REMAIN SO
AS IT CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE POLEWARD. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 20 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

dom

JTWC降格TD

25S IMAN 210308 1200 28.3S 62.2E SHEM 30 1000