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25S.Iman 逐漸轉化

簽到天數: 483 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

dom|2021-3-5 20:45 | 顯示全部樓層
MFR12Z判定登陸馬特拉斯加
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE numéro 14

Vents maximaux (moyennés sur 10 minutes) estimés sur mer: 55 km/h.
Rafales maximales estimées sur mer: 85 km/h.
Pression estimée au centre: 1000 hPa.
Position le 05 mars à 16 heures locales: 18.0 Sud / 44.3 Est.

Distance des côtes réunionnaises: 1195 km au secteur: OUEST-NORD-OUEST
Distance de Mayotte: 570 km au secteur: SUD
Déplacement: EST-SUD-EST, à 20 km/h.
2676E1FD-1A3A-49D4-A369-4983080F1B96.png
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

dom|2021-3-6 08:59 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 dom 於 2021-4-10 17:57 編輯

MFR00Z定強20KT,持續上望+24H達到中等熱帶風暴
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE numéro 14

Vents maximaux (moyennés sur 10 minutes) estimés sur mer: 35 km/h.
Rafales maximales estimées sur mer: 55 km/h.
Pression estimée au centre: 1004 hPa.
Position le 06 mars à 04 heures locales: 19.0 Sud / 47.7 Est.

Distance des côtes réunionnaises: 820 km au secteur: OUEST-NORD-OUEST
Distance de Mayotte: 730 km au secteur: SUD-SUD-EST
Déplacement: EST-SUD-EST, à 28 km/h.
SWI_20202021.png

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dom
對啊@@  發表於 2021-3-6 09:16
而且又是只差一分鐘XD  發表於 2021-3-6 09:10
我暈,居然這樣都能撞文..  發表於 2021-3-6 09:04
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-3-6 09:00 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2021-3-6 09:02 編輯

MFR新報上望40節
WTIO30 FMEE 060023
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/14/20202021
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 14

2.A POSITION 2021/03/06 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.0 S / 47.7 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/06 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 50.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

24H: 2021/03/07 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 53.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 10 SW: 65 NW: 65

36H: 2021/03/07 12 UTC: 23.5 S / 56.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 110

48H: 2021/03/08 00 UTC: 24.8 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 65 SW: 95 NW: 75

60H: 2021/03/08 12 UTC: 26.2 S / 60.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SW: 130 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SW: 120 NW: 65

72H: 2021/03/09 00 UTC: 27.2 S / 61.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 175 NW: 150

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/10 00 UTC: 29.0 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

120H: 2021/03/11 00 UTC: 30.0 S / 62.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

20210306.0000.msg-1.ir.91S.INVEST.25kts.1005mb.18.7S.46E.100pc.jpg 20210305.2211.gw1.89pct89h89v.91S.INVEST.25kts.1005mb.18.7S.46E.93pc.jpg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-3-6 14:35 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2021-3-6 15:44 編輯

約於06Z系統已經出海,未來將有大約24小時的時間可以爭取獲名
WTIO30 FMEE 060728
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/14/20202021
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 14

2.A POSITION 2021/03/06 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3 S / 49.3 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.0/1.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/06 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 52.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2021/03/07 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 54.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 65

36H: 2021/03/07 18 UTC: 24.5 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 35 SW: 85 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 20 SW: 75 NW: 65

48H: 2021/03/08 06 UTC: 25.7 S / 60.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 65 SW: 140 NW: 95

60H: 2021/03/08 18 UTC: 27.3 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 75 SW: 120 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 55 SW: 110 NW: 65

72H: 2021/03/09 06 UTC: 29.0 S / 62.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 165 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 155 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/10 06 UTC: 31.6 S / 62.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 65

120H: 2021/03/11 06 UTC: 33.1 S / 62.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE SYSTEM MOVED OFFSHORE NEAR VATOMANDRY THIS MORNING AFTER CROSSING
THE MALAGASY LANDMASS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS RATHER WEAK AND THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION APPEARS QUITE ELONGATED.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH-EASTWARDS AHEAD OF A
MID-LATITUDES TROUGH. THE MAJORITY OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST
A PASSAGE AT MORE THAN 100 KM IN THE SOUTH-WEST OF REUNION ISLAND
SUNDAY MORNING, EVEN IF MEDIUM UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT
TRACK. EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE CAPTURED BY A
MID-LATITUDES TROUGH WHICH SHOULD BRING IT SOUTH OF 25S, FAR FROM THE
INHABITED ISLANDS, ALONG A SOUTH-EASTWARDS THEN SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS
TRACK. AT THE END OF THE TAUS, THE RESIDUAL DEPRESSION MIGHT BE
TEMPORARILY TRAPPED NORTH OF 30S WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW HIGH
PRESSURE CELL FROM THE WEST.

TODAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD EVOLVE IN A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT ESPECIALLY
WITH AN EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD INTENSIFY AND COULD EVENTUALLY REACH THE MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM STAGE. BUT BY SUNDAY BECAUSE OF THE STRONG SHEAR AND
INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT, THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO START ITS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION THEN.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, FOR THE MASCARENES ISLANDS, A SIGNIFICANT BUT
BRIEF PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BETWEEN SATURDAY EVENING
AND SUNDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY IN REUNION ISLAND.=

SWI_20202021 (2).png

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-3-7 03:29 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC18Z定強提升至30KT,並提升評級為Medium
91S INVEST 210306 1800 21.9S 53.0E SHEM 30 1005
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.1S 44.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.9S 53E, APPROXIMATELY 142 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DES GALETS, LA REUNION. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 061528Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE
DEPICT DISORGANIZED AND FLARING CONVECTION WITH AN ELONGATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS 91S IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DUAL CHANNEL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW,
MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (28-29C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT 91S WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST WHILE UNDERGOING MARGINAL
CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
abpwsair.jpg 20210306.1830.msg-1.ir.91S.INVEST.30kts.1005mb.21.9S.53E.100pc.jpg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-3-7 03:35 | 顯示全部樓層
MFR18Z判定其已重新增強為熱帶低壓,預測+12H後即將升格中度熱帶風暴
WTIO30 FMEE 061851
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/14/20202021
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14

2.A POSITION 2021/03/06 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.8 S / 53.0 E
(TWENTY ONE    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 18 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/07 06 UTC: 23.5 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 85 NW: 100

24H: 2021/03/07 18 UTC: 25.2 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 95 NW: 100

36H: 2021/03/08 06 UTC: 26.8 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 95 NW: 100

48H: 2021/03/08 18 UTC: 28.7 S / 62.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 230 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 95 NW: 100

60H: 2021/03/09 06 UTC: 31.6 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 100 NW: 100

72H: 2021/03/09 18 UTC: 33.6 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 260 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 220 SW: 100 NW: 100

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/10 18 UTC: 36.2 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=2.0

SWI_20202021.png 20210306.1528.f17.91pct91h91v.91S.INVEST.25kts.1001mb.20.6S.50.6E.100pc.jpg
LATEST01.jpg LATEST.jpg

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-3-7 07:06 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC2230Z發布TCFA
WTXS21 PGTW 062230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 21.9S 53.0E TO 24.2S 59.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 062045Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 21.9S 53.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 26
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 21.9S 53E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.5S 53.9E, APPROXIMATELY 142 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DES GALETS, LA REUNION. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 062025Z GMI 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE
DEPICT QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING AND FLARING CONVECTION. A 061839Z METOP-
C ASCAT PASS SHOWS A MUCH TIGHTER LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
RAPIDLY INCREASING WIND SPEEDS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS 91S IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DUAL CHANNEL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW,
MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (28-29C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT 91S WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST WHILE CONTINUING TO CONSOLIDATE
AND INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
072230Z.//
NNNN
EBBE5B8E80A73F5DB4EE344EA99ED595.jpg 20210306.2116.gw1.89pct89h89v.91S.INVEST.30kts.1005mb.21.9S.53E.55pc.jpg LATEST - 2021-03-07T070246.780.jpg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-3-7 09:17 | 顯示全部樓層
MFR00Z升格中度熱帶風暴,命名Iman
FKIO20 FMEE 070021
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20210307 /0021Z
TCAC: REUNION
TC: IMAN
ADVISORY NR: 2021/01
OBS PSN: 07/0000Z S2233 E05431
CB: WI 190NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL520
MOV: ESE 19KT
INTST CHANGE: INTSF
C: 996HPA
MAX WIND: 35KT
FCST PSN +6 HR: 07/0600Z S2312 E05555
FCST MAX WIND +6 HR: 38KT
FCST PSN +12 HR: 07/1200Z S2351 E05718
FCST MAX WIND +12 HR: 40KT
FCST PSN +18 HR: 07/1800Z S2429 E05835
FCST MAX WIND +18 HR: 38KT
FCST PSN +24 HR: 08/0000Z S2512 E05946
FCST MAX WIND +24 HR: 35KT
RMK: NIL.
NXT MSG: 20210307 /0600Z=
SWI_20202021 (4).png 20210307.0000.msg-4.ir.91S.INVEST.30kts.1000mb.22.4S.54.5E.100pc.jpg
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