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25S.Iman 逐漸轉化

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2021-3-4 00:55 | 顯示全部樓層
  中度熱帶風暴  
編號:14-20202021 ( 25 S )
名稱:lman
rbtop0-lalo.gif
  基本資料     
擾動編號日期:2021 03 04 00
JTWC升格日期:2021 03 08 02
命名日期  :2021 03 07 08
撤編日期  :2021 03 08 05
登陸地點  :


  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
法國留尼旺氣象局 (MFR) :45 kt
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC):30 kt ( TD )
海平面最低氣壓996 百帕

  擾動編號資料  

91S.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.17.1S.39.6E
20210303.1500.msg-4.ir.91S.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.17.1S.39.6E.100pc.jpg
以上資料來自:MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2021擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2021-3-4 19:08 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2021-3-4 19:09 編輯

MFR編號熱帶擾動14號
Area of disturbed weather 14-20202021 :
Position at 09UTC : 16.3S/41E
Max 10-mn wind : 20 kt
Motion : East-North-Eastward at 10kt
Estimated central pressure : 1003 hPa
For more information about this system, please refer to bulletins that will be issued at 12UTC and followings.

This weak system will bring heavy rainfall on the western Madagascan coast tonight and inland tomorrow as it will cross Madagascar. Over the week-end, the low may come back over sea and track South of the great Mascarenes at a distance that remains to be determined. Associated thunderstorms and heavy rainfall are likely to affect Reunion and Mauritius islands.

20210304.1000.msg-4.ir.91S.INVEST.15kts.1005mb.17.2S.41.5E.100pc.jpg LATEST.jpg
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dom|2021-3-4 20:34 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 dom 於 2021-3-5 13:34 編輯

JTWC06Z升格TD, 數值預測橫過馬達拉斯加後有所發展
91S INVEST 210304 1200 17.2S 42.2E SHEM 25 1001
91S_gefs_latest.png D383BD5B-1A34-4682-8272-EA2BA605DF6A.png
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老農民版夜神月|2021-3-4 21:52 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2021-3-5 00:12 編輯

MFR首報上望中度熱帶風暴,40KT
WTIO30 FMEE 041336
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/14/20202021
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14

2.A POSITION 2021/03/04 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.7 S / 41.8 E
(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/05 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 43.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION

24H: 2021/03/05 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2021/03/06 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 47.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2021/03/06 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2021/03/07 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 53.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 95

72H: 2021/03/07 12 UTC: 23.6 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 95

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/08 12 UTC: 27.5 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

120H: 2021/03/09 12 UTC: 30.4 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0

IN THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION, WITH AREAS OF STRONG CONVECTION IN ITS NORTHERN PART IN
THE MONSOON FLOW, AND IN ITS SOUTHERN PART. THE LOW LAYER CIRCULATION
HAS THEREFORE IMPROVED VERY SLIGHTLY, AROUND A CENTER WHICH IS STILL
RATHER WIDE AND POORLY DEFINED, ACCORDING TO THE 0330Z HY-2B SWATH.
THE 1033Z AMSR-2 MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS A RATHER WEAK INTERNAL
STRUCTURE NOT SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED. THE PARTIAL 0630Z ASCAT-C DATA
SHOWS AVERAGE WINDS OF ABOUT 25KT IN THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE.

DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM 14-202021, DRIVEN BY THE MONSOON
FLOW, WILL CONTINUE ITS MOVEMENT IN AN EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
AND FINALLY LAND ON THE MALAGASY WEST COAST, SOUTH OF THE MELAKY
DISTRICT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN EMERGE ON THE MALAGASY EAST COAST IN
SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN TRACKS TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST, ON THE
WESTERN SIDEOF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED FURTHER EAST OF THE
DOMAIN, COMBINED WITH A WELL ESTABLISHED MONSOON FLOW. AT THE END OF
THE WEEKEND, BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THE SYSTEM IS PICKED UP BY A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, WITH A NORTH-WESTERLY FLOW AND EVACUATES TOWARDS
THE MID-LATITUDES.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THIS SYSTEM BENEFITS FROM MIXED ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH HAVING A SUFFICIENT OCEANIC POTENTIAL, THE LOW
LAYER CONVERGENCE IS UNBALANCED: ONLY THE MONSOON FLOW MANAGES TO
CONVERGE IN THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM. AT HIGH ALTITUDE, THERE IS A
SLIGHT WESTERLY CONSTRAINT, ALLOWING DRY AIR INTRUSION IN THE WESTERN
PART OF THE SYSTEM. ALSO, THE SYSTEM SHOULD LAND ON THE MALAGASY WEST
COAST AT A STAGE OF LOW INTENSITY. ON SATURDAY MORNING, THE SYSTEM
WILL EMERGE ON THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR, AND SHOULD ENCOUNTER A
SHORT PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION THANKS TO GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. FROM THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, DUE TO A LOWER OCEANIC
POTENTIAL AND WITH THE PRESENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD EXPERIENCE A NOTABLE WEAKENING.

THE INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEME DOESN'T REQUIRE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR
WARNINGS.=
SWI_20202021.png 20210304.1500.msg-4.ir.91S.INVEST.25kts.1001mb.17.2S.42.2E.100pc.jpg
20210304.1331.f18.91pct91h91v.91S.INVEST.25kts.1001mb.17.2S.42.2E.065pc.jpg
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老農民版夜神月|2021-3-4 23:13 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2021-3-5 00:19 編輯

JTWC1500Z評級Low
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
17.2S 42.2E, APPROXIMATELY 287 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO,
MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH BUILDING DEEP
CONVECTION OVERHEAD AND TO THE NORTH. A 041035Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DISTINCTLY ASYMMETRIC CONVECTION WITH
POTENTIAL FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND MOST OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE NORTHEAST. A 040650Z METOP-C
PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS SMALL AREAS OF ELEVATED (20 TO 30 KNOTS)
WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE LLC. 91S IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (10
TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91S
WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION,
POSSIBLY JUST REACHING WARNING CRITERIA, BEFORE MOVING OVER
MADAGASCAR, REINTENSIFYING AND ATTAINING WARNING THRESHOLD AFTER
MOVING BACK OUT TO SEA IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
abpwsair.jpg
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老農民版夜神月|2021-3-5 11:14 | 顯示全部樓層
MFR升格熱帶低壓,新報預測登陸馬達加斯加前即可獲名
WTIO30 FMEE 050110
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/14/20202021
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14

2.A POSITION 2021/03/05 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 41.7 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-NORTH-EAST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/05 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 43.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 35 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 85 SW: 30 NW: 65

24H: 2021/03/06 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 46.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2021/03/06 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 50.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

48H: 2021/03/07 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 95 SW: 35 NW: 130

60H: 2021/03/07 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 56.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 110

72H: 2021/03/08 00 UTC: 25.6 S / 59.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 110

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/09 00 UTC: 29.0 S / 62.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 165 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 240 SW: 155 NW: 65

120H: 2021/03/10 00 UTC: 30.8 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0

SWI_20202021.png 20210305.0108.f15.85rgb.91S.INVEST.25kts.1004mb.17.1S.42.5E.085pc.jpg 20210305.0230.msg-4.ir.91S.INVEST.25kts.1004mb.17.1S.42.5E.100pc.jpg
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老農民版夜神月|2021-3-5 13:30 | 顯示全部樓層
SSMIS 03Z最新底層,這對流空洞看著還真是有點嚇人....
20210305.0308.f17.91pct91h91v.91S.INVEST.25kts.1004mb.17.1S.42.5E.065pc.jpg 20210305.0308.f17.91h.91S.INVEST.25kts.1004mb.17.1S.42.5E.065pc.jpg
20210305.0308.f17.91hw.91S.INVEST.25kts.1004mb.17.1S.42.5E.065pc.jpg
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dom|2021-3-5 14:58 | 顯示全部樓層
MFR新報暫轉向不看好登陸馬達拉斯加前成旋
DEPRESSION TROPICALE numéro 14

Vents maximaux (moyennés sur 10 minutes) estimés sur mer: 55 km/h.
Rafales maximales estimées sur mer: 85 km/h.
Pression estimée au centre: 996 hPa.
Position le 05 mars à 10 heures locales: 17.4 Sud / 43.9 Est.

Distance des côtes réunionnaises: 1255 km au secteur: OUEST-NORD-OUEST
Distance de Mayotte: 520 km au secteur: SUD-SUD-OUEST
Déplacement: EST, à 26 km/h.
SWI_20202021.png 8a56baa1cd11728ba610cd69dffcc3cec3fd2c16.jpg
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