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JTWC上望C1，約於明天清晨登陸斯里蘭卡WTIO31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 8.8N 83.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.8N 83.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 9.5N 81.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 9.7N 80.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 9.6N 79.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 9.3N 78.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 9.0N 77.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 8.6N 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 9.0N 83.0E.
02DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) AND
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY ORGANIZING
SYSTEM, WHICH CONTINUES TO STEADILY STRENGTHEN, HAVING DEVELOPED A
CDO, WHICH IS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
CENTER OF THE SPIRAL CONVECTIVE BANDS WHICH ARE WRAPPING INTO THE
COMPACT LLCC, AS DEPICTED IN A 012237Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, HEDGED
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM DEMS,
IN LIGHT OF AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55
KNOTS) AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 54 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MODERATELY STRONG POINT-SOURCE NORTHEAST OF THE
LLCC, WHICH IS PROVIDING STRONGLY DIVERGENT EQUATORWARD AND MODERATE
TO STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (5-10
KNOTS). SST VALUES (29C) ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TC
05B IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS WITHHIN THE BROAD
EAST-WEST ORIENTED STR OVER CENTRAL INDIA. OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS,
THE WEAKNESS WILL DISSIPATE AS THE STR STRENGTHENS, ALLOWING TC 05B TO
SLOWLY SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTHERN TIP OF
SRI LANKA, THEN TRACK SOUTHWESTERWARD AS THE DEEP-LAYER STR OVER THE
NORTH ARABIAN SEA BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. TC 05B IS
FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF SRI LANKA NEAR
TAU 24, THEN WILL TRACK OVER THE PALK STRAIT AND MAKE A SECOND
LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF INDIA NEAR TAU 48. TC 05B IS
FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 24 UNDER FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, PEAKING AT 65 KNOTS JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
THERE ALSO EXISTS A POSSIBILITY OF A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
PRIOR TO LANDFALL WHICH COULD RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PEAK WHICH
ISN'T CAPTURED IN THE FORECAST POINTS. AFTER LANDFALL, THE COMBINATION
OF INCREASING VWS, DECREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LAND INTERACTION
OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN INDIA, WILL LEAD TO STEADY
WEAKENING, WITH THE SYSTEM FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER SOUTH OF
INDIA BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
LANDFALL, WITH INCREASING SPREAD THEREAFTER, WITH NAVGEM REPRESENTING
THE NORTHERN OUTLIER TAKING THE SYSTEM OVER COCHIN, INDIA BY TAU 96,
WHILE THE GFS TRACKS THE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF INDIA. THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS NORTH OF THE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE THROUGH TAU
24 BASED ON THE NEAR-TERM TRACK, THEN JUST SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 96 WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z,
022100Z AND 030300Z.
//
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