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05B.Burevi 徘徊於斯里蘭卡與印度之間

簽到天數: 1245 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

2020-11-28 14:31 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2020-12-5 04:15 編輯

  氣旋風暴  
編號:BOB 05  ( 05 B )
名稱:Burevi
204305s3hn2pzr02ssgssp.jpg
  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2020 11 28 14
JTWC升格日期:2020 12 01 20
命名日期  :2020 12 01 23
撤編日期  :2020 12 00 00
登陸地點  :斯里蘭卡
                       印度

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
印度氣象局 (IMD):45 kt
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC):45 kt ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓   :996 百帕

  擾動編號資料  

98B.INVEST.15kts-998mb-6N-93.5W
20201127.2159.f15.37h.98B.INVEST.15kts.998mb.6N.93.5E.065pc.jpg
以上資料來自:IMD、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2021擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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簽到天數: 305 天

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dom|2020-11-28 22:24 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC評價low
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.5N
92.8E, APPROXIMATELY 912 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA
OF DISORGANIZED, FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING A BROAD AREA OF LOW
LEVEL TURNING. THE POSITION OF THE SYSTEM CENTER IS PLACED WITH POOR
CONFIDENCE BUT IS CONSTRAINED SOMEWHAT BY A 281017Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR CONSOLIDATION
WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (28-29
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY MODERATE
(10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANTS. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 98B WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD
TOWARDS SRI LANKA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
IMG_0668.JPG 2_Tropical Weather Outlook based on  0300 UTC of 28.11.2020_5fc1fc2a246bc.png 1_Tropical Weather Outlook based on  0300 UTC of 28.11.2020_5fc1fb86a3c5e.png


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老農民版夜神月|2020-11-30 03:38 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC提升評級為Medium
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.5N 92.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.5N 88.2E, APPROXIMATELY 493 NM
EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF DEEPENING AND CONSOLIDATING
CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT IS OBSCURING A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
FORMATIVE BANDING, ALBEIT FRAGMENTED, CAN ALSO BE SEEN CLOSING IN
FROM THE NORTHERN PERIPHERIES. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND WESTWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LOW
(<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98B WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY
AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD SRI LANKA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
20201129.1850.himawari-8.ir.98B.INVEST.20kts.1008mb.7.5N.88.2E.100pc.jpg 20201129.1900.himawari8.x.wv1km.98BINVEST.20kts-1008mb-75N-882E.100pc.jpg
20201129.191500.IO982020.seviri.msg1.Infrared-Gray.20kts.100p0.1p0.jpg 98B_gefs_latest.png
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dom|2020-11-30 13:56 來自手機 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 dom 於 2020-11-30 14:48 編輯

IMD將其升格為低氣壓,編號BOB05,初報上望45KT
1_01.National Bulletin 20201130_0000UTC_5fc4716ade3de.png
DB3A0215-83C2-4B24-BB89-409543B621F6.png
7745E4D4-ED8A-476F-A3E8-72135A5611A7.png
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dom|2020-11-30 18:41 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC發佈TCFA
WTIO21 PGTW 300930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
080 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.5N 87.5E TO 6.3N 85.1E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
300830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 6.5N
87.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (EMI) DISPLAYS AN AREA OF
FLARING CONVECTION THAT IS OBSCURING A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
A PARTIAL 300711Z AMSR2 89GHZ PASS SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING WITH DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST
POLEWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98B WILL
CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD SRI LANKA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
010930Z.
//
NNNN
IMG_0731.GIF
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老農民版夜神月|2020-11-30 20:46 | 顯示全部樓層
風場掃描顯示98B仍處於中心較為狹長的狀態,且南側風力明顯偏弱,結構需要些時間調整
LATEST.jpg
JTWC12Z德法分析T2.0
TPIO10 PGTW 301218

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98B (E OF SRI LANKA)

B. 30/1145Z

C. 7.11N

D. 87.03E

E. FIVE/GOES-IO

F. T2.0/2.0  STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET YIELDS 1.0. PT YIELDS 2.0. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   HEINS

20201130.1210.himawari-8.ir.98B.INVEST.25kts.1006mb.6.5N.87.3E.100pc.jpg 20201130.0711.gw1.89pct89h89v.98B.INVEST.25kts.1006mb.6.5N.87.3E.55pc.jpg
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老農民版夜神月|2020-12-1 04:05 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2020-12-1 04:07 編輯

IMD認為98B於24小時之內,大約明天下午06Z左右便將升格成為氣旋風暴
1_4. Tropical Weather Outlook based on  1200 UTC of 30.11.2020_5fc5050fedcc0.png ftrack3012.png 98B_gefs_latest.png 20201130.163000.IO982020.ahi.himawari8.Infrared-Gray.30kts.100p0.1p0.jpg
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dom|2020-12-1 14:56 | 顯示全部樓層
IMD將其升格為深低壓,繼續上望氣旋風暴,JTWC06Z也把強度提升至30KT
98B INVEST 201201 0600 6.9N 85.5E IO 30 1003

TPIO10 PGTW 010620

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98B (E OF SRI LANKA)

B. 01/0515Z

C. 7.26N

D. 85.52E

E. FIVE/GOES-IO

F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET YIELDS A 2.0 AND PT YIELDS A 2.5. DBO
DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


ELIAS
1_7. Tropical Weather Outlook based on  0300 UTC of 01.12.2020_5fc5db89527de.png 4_7. Tropical Weather Outlook based on  0300 UTC of 01.12.2020_5fc5db8e53286.png 5_7. Tropical Weather Outlook based on  0300 UTC of 01.12.2020_5fc5db8fa372a.png 6_7. Tropical Weather Outlook based on  0300 UTC of 01.12.2020_5fc5db915db67.png

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