krichard2011

NHC直跳160KT!!!

t02436

NHC根據實測直升160節，氣壓評定為892百帕，並預測以巔峰登陸墨西哥
墨西哥慘了………

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 230531
TCDEP5

HURRICANE PATRICIA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015
1230 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

The purpose of this special advisory is to update for a significant
increase in the intensity of the hurricane.  Reports from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that Patricia has intensified at an
incredible rate since yesterday.  The plane measured peak 700-mb
flight level winds of 179 kt in the northeastern eyewall, and this
may be an unprecedented value for a tropical cyclone.  Using the 90
percent adjustment value to convert this to a surface wind speed
yields an intensity estimate of 160 kt, which is tied with eastern
north Pacific Hurricane Linda of 1997 for the strongest on record.
A dropsonde released into the eye measured a sea-level pressure of
894 mb with 25 kt of wind. Adjusting this pressure for the surface
winds (i.e. the drop did not land into the actual center of the eye)
gives an estimated minimum central pressure of 892 mb, which breaks
the record for the lowest pressure of an east Pacific hurricane.
Some fluctuations in intensity are likely today due to eyewall
replacements, but Patricia should maintain category 5 status through
landfall this afternoon or evening.

No changes are made to the track forecast from the previous
advisory.

This special advisory replaces the 0600 UTC intermediate advisory
for Patricia.

KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the
hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely
dangerous major hurricane this afternoon or evening.  Preparations
to protect life and property in the hurricane warning area should be
completed as tropical storm conditions are beginning to affect
the area.

2.  In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is
likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the
Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero continuing
into Saturday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0530Z 16.5N 105.3W  160 KT 185 MPH
12H  23/1200Z 17.4N 105.7W  160 KT 185 MPH
24H  24/0000Z 19.7N 105.3W  160 KT 185 MPH...INLAND
36H  24/1200Z 22.5N 103.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
48H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

kbty245

krichard2011 發表於 2015-10-23 13:39
NHC直跳160KT!!!

颶風獵人實測890.9hpa. 179kts，換算後差不多160kts

Patricia 擠下蘇迪勒成為2015全球風王

bulluuu

Last Updated: 2015/10/23, 下午1:00:00 0

               

• Location: 16.5N 105.3W
• Movement: NNW at 10 mph
• Wind: 295KPH
• Pressure: 892 MB      
  
  

185 mph 這太誇張了啦..............  遠遠超過 C5 啊~~

t02436

06Z速報再調升強度，評價165節，886百帕！

EP, 20, 2015102306,   , BEST,   0, 165N, 1054W, 165,  886, HU,  64, NEQ,   25,   20,   20,   20, 1007,  180,   5,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,   PATRICIA, D,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 034,

15:15補充：
速報改強度至175節，880百帕！！！

2015102306, , BEST, 0, 165N, 1054W, 175, 880, HU, 34, NEQ, 150, 100, 60, 130, 1007, 180, 5, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, PATRICIA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 034

ktf

實測才是王道,所以機構給強度140也好155也好甚至更高都只是估計
西北太很多超颱都有可能比估計還強上不少

個人就不太關注德法等估計,因為沒有實測,估計強度也是看看就好

t02436

NHC表示若是沒有追風獵人飛機實測進行的話，永遠都無法得知Patricia的真正強度...
破紀錄的報文!! 巔峰上看180Kts!!!

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 230834
TCDEP5

HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015
400 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

Data from three center fixes by the Hurricane Hunters indicate
that the intensity, based on a blend of 700 mb-flight level and
SFMR-observed surface winds, is near 175 kt.  This makes Patricia
the strongest hurricane on record in the National Hurricane Center's
area of responsibility (AOR) which includes the Atlantic and the
eastern North Pacific basins.  The minimum central pressure
estimated from the aircraft data, 880 mb, is the lowest ever for
our AOR.  It seems incredible that even more strengthening could
occur before landfall later today, but recent microwave imagery
shows hints of a concentric eyewall developing.  If the trend
toward an eyewall replacement continues, it would cause the
intensity to at least level off later today.  The official forecast
shows only a little more strengthening before landfall.  Given the
very mountainous terrain that Patricia should encounter after
landfall, the cyclone should weaken even faster over land than
predicted by the normal inland decay rate.

Recent center fixes show that the hurricane is gradually turning
toward the right, and the initial motion estimate is 340/10 kt.  The
track forecast scenario remains about the same.  Patricia should
continue to move around the western periphery of a mid-level
anticyclone today and turn north-northeastward ahead of a trough to
the northwest tonight and Saturday.  The official track forecast is
somewhat slower than the latest model consensus and lies between
the GFS and ECMWF solutions.

The global models continue to depict the development of a cyclone
near the Texas coast over the weekend.  Based on the predicted
upper-level winds, this system should be non-tropical in nature.
However this cyclone is expected to draw significant amounts of
moisture from Patricia's remnants, and could result in locally
heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico
coastal area within the next few days.  Refer to statements from
local National Weather Service forecast offices for details.

We would like to acknowledge deeply the Air Force Hurricane Hunters
for their observations establishing Patricia as a record-breaking
hurricane.  Clearly, without their data, we would never have known
just how strong a tropical cyclone it was.

KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the
hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely
dangerous category 5 hurricane this afternoon or evening.
Preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning
area should have been completed, or rushed to completion, as
tropical storm conditions are beginning to affect the area.
Residents in low-lying areas near the coast in the hurricane warning
area should evacuate immediately, since the storm surge could be
catastrophic near and to the east of where the center makes
landfall.

2.  In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is
likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the
Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero continuing
into Saturday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0900Z 17.0N 105.5W  175 KT 200 MPH
12H  23/1800Z 18.8N 105.4W  180 KT 205 MPH
24H  24/0600Z 21.7N 104.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
36H  24/1800Z 24.5N 102.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

alu

真的還是假的，比西太的海燕還強，難道有實測和沒有實測真的差那麼多嗎？還是因為那邊離美國近所以可得比較寬鬆？