s6815711

預測路徑很剛好的避開換日線

t02436

昨天12Z降格TD
剛剛00Z因為風場東北側掃出35節，所以重新回到TS
目前預測最西還是只能到179.5W
96小時之後將會遭到閃電轉化後強大的溫帶氣旋吸收

WTPA42 PHFO 230241
TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM LOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP042015
500 PM HST SAT AUG 22 2015

LOKE HAS BEEN MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR ITS CENTER SINCE
THIS MORNING AND A WELL-TIMED ASCAT PASS SHOWED SEVERAL 35 KT WIND
BARBS IN ITS NORTHEAST QUADRANT. AS A RESULT...LOKE WILL BE
REINSTATED AS A TROPICAL STORM WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT
FOR THIS PACKAGE.

THE INITIAL MOTION OF LOKE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 345/8 KT AS IT MOVES
BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A WEAK MID- TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW TO THE WEST. THE FORECAST RATIONALE FOR THIS PACKAGE REMAINS
GENERALLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND KEEPS THE CYCLONE ON
A NORTH-NORTHWEST PATH FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST. THIS FORECAST TRACK IS IN THE MIDDLE OF A TIGHT
GROUPING OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. AFTER ABOUT 96 HOURS...THE
ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE THAT LOKE SHOULD TURN BACK TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN THE MUCH LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER SUPER TYPHOON
ATSANI.

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEARLY 29C AND VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS
WEAK AROUND 5 KT BASED ON THE 0000 UTC CIMSS ANALYSIS. WATER
VAPOR AND MIMIC TPW SHOW DRIER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE/S CIRCULATION FROM THE NORTH AND WEST...WHICH MAY SLOW
THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS DESPITE THE WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. GLOBAL MODELS AND SHIPS INDICATE THAT THIS DRIER AIR
MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT LOKE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THUS...THE
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW INTENSIFICATION WITH LOKE PEAKING AT
50 KT BY 72 HOURS BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY FORMER SUPER TYPHOON
ATSANI. THIS IS A BIT BELOW SHIPS BUT CLOSE TO HWRF.

INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LOKE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 18.8N 179.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  23/1200Z 19.8N 179.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  24/0000Z 21.5N 179.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  24/1200Z 23.3N 178.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  25/0000Z 25.4N 176.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
72H  26/0000Z 30.5N 175.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
96H  27/0000Z 35.5N 179.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  28/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA

t02436

CPHC 03Z升格一級颶風
預測36到48小時之後轉化為溫帶氣旋並進入西太平洋
隨後遭到閃電併吞

WTPA42 PHFO 250256
TCDCP2

HURRICANE LOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP042015
500 PM HST MON AUG 24 2015

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS THE CLOUD TOPS OVER LOKE HAVE WARMED...BUT
AN INDISTINCT EYE HAS BEEN POPPING IN AND OUT OF VIEW ON VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
CAME IN AT T3.0/50KT FROM SAB...T3.5/55KT FROM PHFO...AND JTWC.
THE UW-CIMSS ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 80 KT. I HAVE RAISED THE
INITIAL INTENSITY TO 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/13. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A LOW ALOFT DIGGING SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHWEST OF
LOKE. THIS LOW THE MAIN FACTOR CONTROLLING THE STEERING OF LOKE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. OBJECTIVE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING LOKE ROTATING AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW. THIS
WILL PRODUCE NORTHEAST MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTH THEN
NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND A RAPID ACCELERATION IN
FORWARD SPEED. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK IS CHANGED ONLY SLIGHTLY AND
IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE RELIABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS.

LOKE WILL REMAIN OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 27-29C FOR
ANOTHER 24 HOURS...THEN MOVE ACROSS COOLER WATERS NORTH OF 30N.
WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS INCREASING AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES FURTHER POLEWARD...THE MORE RAPID NORTHEAST MOTION OF THE
STORM SEEMS TO BE MAINTAINING SUFFICIENTLY LOW RELATIVE SHEAR TO
ALLOW LOKE TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...KEEPING
LOKE AS A HURRICANE FOR THE 24 HOURS. A STEADY WEAKENING TREND
SHOULD BEGIN AFTER 24 HOURS...AS THE CYCLONE MOVES ACROSS
INCREASINGLY COOL WATERS AND BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. LOKE
IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY 48
HOURS. THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME RAPIDLY ABSORBED
BY THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF TYPHOON ATSANI.

LOKE IS NOW PASSING BETWEEN PEARL AND HERMES REEF AND LISIANSKI
ISLAND. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.
HOWEVER...NOTE THAT IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS TOO CLOSELY ON THE
EXACT FORECAST TRACK OF LOKE...AS SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL
CYCLONES CAN EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0300Z 26.7N 175.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
12H  25/1200Z 28.6N 173.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  26/0000Z 31.5N 174.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
36H  26/1200Z 34.6N 176.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  27/0000Z 39.0N 179.5E   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON

t02436

系統開始加速往西北移動
對流被風切切離
CPHC 03Z調降強度至50節
但值得注意的是這報改為進入西太後才逐漸轉化
1517的編號還是有被搶走的可能性

WTPA42 PHFO 260250
TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM LOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP042015
500 PM HST TUE AUG 25 2015

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FOR LOKE WERE 2.5/35KT FROM JTWC...
3.0/45KT FROM SAB...AND 3.5/55KT FROM PHFO. AN ASCAT PASS OVER LOKE
AT 25/2055 UTC SHOWED AN AREA OF 45KT WINDS NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ACTUAL WINDS MAY BE A BIT STRONGER THAN THAT. I HAVE DROPPED THE
INITIAL INTENSITY TO 50 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION FOR LOKE IS NOW TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST
AT 15 KT. THE REASONING FOR THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS UNCHANGED.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP-LAYER LOW ABOUT 450NM WEST SOUTHWEST
OF LOKE...NEAR 29N179E. LOKE IS MOVING ALONG IN THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THIS LOW. THE STORM WILL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE AS IT IS DRAWN INTO
THE CIRCULATION AROUND A LARGE LOW THAT WAS ONCE TYPHOON ATSANI.
THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS CLOSELY WITHIN A RATHER
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

LOKE WILL START TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 24 HOURS AND THE
FORECAST HAS BEEN COORDINATED WITH THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
THE WIND FIELD WILL BE STRONGLY ASYMMETRICAL SINCE THERE IS A
STRONG 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH NORTHEAST OF LOKE. THE GRADIENT IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS. THE RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND DECREASE ELSEWHERE. LOKE IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN 36 HOURS. IT
WILL BE ABSORBED BY EX-ATSANI IN 48 HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0300Z 32.0N 174.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  26/1200Z 34.5N 176.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  27/0000Z 38.8N 179.7E   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  27/1200Z 45.0N 175.0E   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON

轉化後的閃電虎視眈眈等著Loke自己送上門....

Meow

JMA預測明天00Z這位置，到底會不會編號呢？:L

asus5635

WTPA42 PHFO 260841
TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM LOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP042015
1100 PM HST TUE AUG 25 2015

THE CORE OF LOKE REMAINS INTACT AS IT IS BEING DRAWN AROUND A DEEP
LOW CENTERED 450 MILES TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER HAD
BEEN PARTIALLY EXPOSED DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WHILE IT HAS
BECOME DIFFICULT TO LOCATE WITH INFRARED IMAGERY THIS EVENING...A
0555 UTC SSMIS PASS WAS HELPFUL IN DETERMINING THE CENTER. DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM A 2.5/35 KT BY HFO AND JTWC
TO 3.0/45 KT OUT OF SAB. AS A RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE
DROPPED TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NORTHWEST...OR 325 DEGREES...AT 18 KT. LOKE
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LOW
CENTERED 450 MILES TO THE SOUTHWEST. LOKE WILL ACCELERATE TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT BETWEEN THE DEEP LOW AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES TO THE NORTHEAST. ON WEDNESDAY LOKE WILL
CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND BEGIN TO UNDERGO
TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW AS IT BECOMES DRAWN INTO THE
CIRCULATION OF A LARGER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TYPHOON ATSANI.
THE FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF A RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

LOKE CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE DEEP LOW CENTERED TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THE CORE REMAINS INTACT FOR NOW WITH OUTFLOW PERSISTING
TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW WILL WILL
BE OCCURRING ON WEDNESDAY. DURING THIS TIME THE WIND FIELD WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRICAL...AND IN COORDINATION WITH THE
OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER...LOKE IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN BE ABSORBED INTO THE
CIRCULATION OF FORMER ATSANI BY 48 HOURS.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0900Z 33.2N 175.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  26/1800Z 36.3N 178.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  27/0600Z 41.6N 177.5E   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H  27/1800Z 48.7N 172.7E   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H  28/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER WROE

下午11點那報過後就交由JTWC發報囉

alu

Meow 發表於 2015-8-26 14:02
JMA預測明天00Z這位置，到底會不會編號呢？

這要看進到西太達不達到颱風命名最低標準才會編號

asus5635

WTPA42 PHFO 262052
TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM LOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP042015
1100 AM HST WED AUG 26 2015

LOKE CONTINUES TO TRACK RAPIDLY NORTHWEST AND TRANSITION TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 2.0/35
KT FROM HFO...2.5/35 KT FROM SAB AND 2.0/30 KT FROM JTWC. SINCE THE
SYSTEM IS BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL...THE DVORAK ESTIMATES MAY NOT BE
REPRESENTATIVE. I AM KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 50 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS TO THE NORTHWEST...OR 315 DEGREES...AT 32 KT.
LOKE WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHWEST BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER
LOW ABOUT 565 MILES TO THE SOUTH AND A STRONG SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
ABOUT 1200 MILES TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS MOTION WILL TAKE LOKE WEST
OF THE DATELINE AND OUT OF THE CPHC AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOKE IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 50 KT AND TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW WITHIN SIX
HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY AND WIND RADII WERE BASED ON
INPUT FROM THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST BULLETIN ON THE SYSTEM FROM CPHC. PLEASE SEE
THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS FROM OPC FOR FUTURE FORECASTS. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER UNDER AWIPS HEADER HSFEP1 AND
WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/2100Z 38.0N 179.9E   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  27/0600Z 42.0N 177.0E   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H  27/1800Z 49.0N 171.0E   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H  28/0600Z 55.0N 170.0E   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H  28/1800Z 59.0N 175.0E   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H  29/1800Z...INLAND

$
FORECASTER DONALDSON

跨洋啦~~