0908morakot

  一級颶風  
編號：04 C
名稱：Loke


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2015 年 08 月 20 日 09 時
命名日期　　：2015 年 08 月 22 日 05 時
消散日期　　：2015 年 08 月 28 日 04 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 ： 65  kt ( CAT.1 )
海平面最低氣壓 ：986 百帕

  過去路徑圖  


  討論帖圖片  
94C.INVEST.20kts.1007mb.13.6N.179W


CPHC:10%

2. An area of nearly stationary pulsing convection is about 1450 miles west-southwest of Honolulu. Environmental conditions appear to support slow development in this area during the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent.

以上資料來自：CPHC、颱風論壇整理製作

alu

94C Low 進入西太後增強成颱風是西太還是中太命名呢？

asus5635

CPHC預計下一報評價為HIGH，編碼04C

t02436

CPHC 03Z升格04C
預計12小時內命名
名稱可能是Kilo或Loke
目前預報48到72小時後會進入西太
而120小時之後再度回到中太

WTPA42 PHFO 210248
TCDCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP042015
500 PM HST THU AUG 20 2015

DEEP CONVECTION AND OVERALL ORGANIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST AREA
94-C HAS IMPROVED SUFFICIENTLY TO UPGRADE THIS SYSTEM TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FOUR-C THIS AFTERNOON...THE SEVENTH TROPICAL SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC BASIN THIS SEASON. AN EXCELLENT
2100Z ASCAT PASS SAMPLED THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION...INCREASING CENTER
FIX CONFIDENCE AND SHOWING A FEW RAIN CONTAMINATED 25 KT WIND BARBS
ALONG THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AT 0000Z RANGED FROM 1.0...25 KT...FROM JTWC TO 2.0...30
KT FROM SAB. HFO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AT 1.5...25 KT. GIVEN THE
GRADUALLY IMPROVING ORGANIZATION SHOWN THIS AFTERNOON...INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT. FOUR-C APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY
TOWARD THE NORTH...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 360/4 KT ASSIGNED.

FOUR-C LIES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF A WEAK RIDGE AND IS
MOVING WITHIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW PREVALENT NEAR THE
DATELINE. THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS RATHER TIGHTLY PACKED
GUIDANCE...WITH FOUR-C MEANDERING NORTH IN THE SHORT TERM...THEN
NORTHWEST IN THE MEDIUM TERM. THIS SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST
TO CROSS INTO THE WESTERN PACIFIC BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72. AS
STEERING FLOW VEERS SLIGHTLY TO SOUTHWESTERLIES IN THE LONG
RANGE...FOUR-C FLIRTS WITH THE DATELINE AGAIN AT TAU 120. ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK...FOUR-C REMAINS TOO FAR SOUTH TO DECISIVELY RECURVE.

INTENSITY GUIDANCE NUDGES FOUR-C TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AT TAU
12...BUT THEN KEEPS INTENSIFICATION SLOW AFTERWARDS. SHIPS
REPRESENTS THIS TREND RATHER WELL...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST
FOLLOWS THIS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0300Z 15.2N 177.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  21/1200Z 15.7N 177.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  22/0000Z 16.5N 177.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  22/1200Z 17.2N 178.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  23/0000Z 18.0N 179.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
72H  24/0000Z 19.3N 179.5E   50 KT  60 MPH
96H  25/0000Z 21.0N 178.7E   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  26/0000Z 23.1N 179.9E   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER POWELL

正宜27

jtwc首報上看50kts

開梅

這種情況以往也發生過，若待在西太的時間太短，日本方面經常忽視，任由偷渡客自行離去。

...

Tropical Storm Loke Advisory Number 004
Issued at 1100 AM HST FRI AUG 21 2015
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location: 16.4N 177.2W
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM W OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 815 MI...1310 KM S OF MIDWAY ISLAND
Maximum sustained winds: 45 MPH...75 KM/H
Present movement: N or 355 degrees AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
Minimum central pressure: 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

CPHC已經命名LOKE 強度上望55KTS
預計在換日線附近北上 擦邊不是不可能
即便如此 JMA仍可能略過該系統短暫進入

甜心

:)若未來真的穿越過換日線的話是不是要改稱它為17w.-Loke阿，換日線以西那邊海洋環境還不錯它的強度應該還會往上增強一點點。

不過到了換日線鄰近海域因為洋流交錯跟風切轉換因素可能發展會受到一些影響。