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1431036707|2015-7-3 13:50
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本帖最後由 t02436 於 2015-7-3 14:13 編輯
TCFA
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.7N 171.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 170.7E, APPROXIMATELY 70 NM NORTHWEST OF MAJURO, MARSHALL ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS INTRODUCING DRY AIR INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASING CONSOLIDATION OF DEEP CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM. |
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