Meow

  強烈颱風  
編號：1511 ( 11 W )
名稱：南卡 ( Nangka )


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2015 年 07 月 01 日 01 時
命名日期　　：2015 年 07 月 04 日 03 時
停編日期　　：2015 年 07 月 18 日 02 時
登陸地點　　：日本 高知縣 室戶市
                                 岡山縣 倉敷市

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB)： 55 m/s ( 16 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) ： 50 m/s ( 100 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)  ： 135 kt ( CAT.4 )
                                                   
最低氣壓與暴風圈半徑
海平面最低氣壓： 910 百帕
七級風半徑　　： 250 公里
十級風半徑　　： 80  公里

  過去路徑圖  


  討論帖圖片  
97W.INVEST.15kts.NAmb.4.5N.176.0E


以上資料來自：CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

正宜27

jtwc  評low

(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.6NN 175.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 478 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED MSI
DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING BROADLY
WRAPPING INTO AN ILL-DEFINED LLCC. AN OLDER 302200Z PARTIAL ASCAT
SHOWED 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS AND GOOD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, WARM SST IN
THE AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

asus5635

JMA認為他兩天後會升格為T.D

typhoonman

而預報圖中準颱風蓮花也在菲律賓呂宋島東方海面成型，朝台灣海域過來。

1431036707

GW
GW
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030000UTC 08.5N 173.1E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 040000UTC 08.5N 172.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

t02436

JTWC 稍早提升評級至Medium

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.1N
174.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.7N 171.9E, APPROXIMATELY 45 NM
NORTHEAST OF MAJURO, MARSHALL ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF FLARING CURVED, ALBEIT
BROKEN, CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND GOOD DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS INTRODUCING DRY AIR INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE
DISTURBANCE TRACKS WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT AND CONSOLIDATING LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

JMA發出GW
附上日語報文

熱帯低気圧
平成27年07月03日10時45分 発表

<03日09時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        マーシャル諸島
中心位置        北緯 8度30分(8.5度)
東経 173度05分(173.1度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 ゆっくり
中心気圧        1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<04日09時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        マーシャル諸島
予報円の中心        北緯 8度30分(8.5度)
東経 172度10分(172.2度)
進行方向、速さ        ほとんど停滞
中心気圧        998hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        220km(120NM)

typhoonman

另外，讓我感到好奇的是，夾在昌鴻和97W之間有一個疑似熱帶擾動也在悄悄發展起來，並且有在稍微逆時針旋轉。剛好前94W的底層殘存雲系被昌鴻拉至其東南側和這疑似熱帶擾動結合。:)