Meow

降格 STS（979hPa 60kt），Joalane 淪為恥笑對象。

蜜露

底層眼再度建立中. . . 但發展時間估計不多了.

要達到比之前強,還是不太容易的..

krichard2011

Joalane 不甘示弱硬是轉出了一個大大的風眼
強度重回TC 不過後期仍預測將逐漸減弱...

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/13/20142015
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOALANE)
2.A POSITION 2015/04/11 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.1 S / 67.7 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 350 SW: 280 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 280 SW: 190 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 160 SW: 120 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/04/11 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 67.7 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2015/04/12 06 UTC: 25.2 S / 67.5 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2015/04/12 18 UTC: 26.8 S / 66.7 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/04/13 06 UTC: 28.0 S / 65.5 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2015/04/13 18 UTC: 29.4 S / 65.7 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2015/04/14 06 UTC: 31.1 S / 67.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/04/15 06 UTC: 34.4 S / 71.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2015/04/16 06 UTC: 35.4 S / 75.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM

t02436

MFR 00Z報認定Joalane已經轉化

ZCZC 961
WTIO30 FMEE 120017
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 30/13/20142015
1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION  13  (EX-JOALANE)
2.A POSITION 2015/04/12 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.7 S / 67.9 E
(TWENTY FOUR    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN
DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 15 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :74 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 520 SW: 520 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 290 SE: 410 SW: 410 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 160 SE: 210 SW: 210 NW: 160
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/04/12 12 UTC: 27.1 S / 67.4 E, MAX WIND=060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2015/04/13 00 UTC: 28.5 S / 66.0 E, MAX WIND=060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2015/04/13 12 UTC: 29.7 S / 65.6 E, MAX WIND=060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2015/04/14 00 UTC: 31.7 S / 66.7 E, MAX WIND=060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2015/04/14 12 UTC: 34.1 S / 68.5 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
72H: 2015/04/15 00 UTC: 35.2 S / 70.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/04/16 00 UTC: 36.4 S / 74.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
120H: 2015/04/17 00 UTC: 37.0 S / 79.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
SUCCESSIVE AMSU-A CROSS-SECTIONS N15 AT 0041Z, N19 AT 0946Z AND N18
AT 1239Z REVEAL THAT JOALANE'S WARM CORE ANOMALY IS PROGRESSIVELY
ELONGATING DOWNWARDS.
INTERACTING WITH THE WESTERLY SUBTROPICAL JET AND OVER MARGINAL
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT (SST AT ABOUT 25/26 DG), SYSTEM BEGINS TO EVOLVE
ONTO AN HYBRID POST-TROPICAL STRUCTURE AND EXPERIENCING A
STRENGTHENING VWS, DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN REJECTED IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
THIS STRUCTURE CHANGE GENERATES A DILATATION OF THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM
WINDS.
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WINDS EXTENSION HAS BEEN RECALIBRATED THANKS TO
1752Z ASCAT SWATH.
WITHIN A MORE AND MORE BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT, JOALANE IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP ON LOSING ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BUT THE SYSTEM IS
HOWEVER EXPECTED TO REMAIN POWERFUL AS STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD LAST
FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
THE END OF THE EXTRATROP PROCESS IS ONLY FORECAST FROM THURSDAY 14 AS
THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LAT
WESTERLIES.
BEFORE THAT TIME, THE POLEWARDS TRACK OF JOALANE WILL BE TEMPORARILY
LIMITED ON MONDAY BY A BUILDING BUT TRANSIENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.=
NNNN