22S.Joalane 漸入高緯逐漸轉化中

Meow · 2015-4-7 03:13

命名 Joalane，上看強烈熱帶氣旋，而且能維持不短的時間。

WTIO20 FMEE 061842
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/04/2015
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 06/04/2015 AT 1800 UTC.
PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (JOALANE) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9 S / 61.9 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-WEST 4 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 300 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, MAINLY IN THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 50 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 30
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2015/04/07 AT 06 UTC:
14.4 S / 61.4 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2015/04/07 AT 18 UTC:
14.9 S / 61.1 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
PREVIOUS POSITION RELOCATED FURTHER NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS INTENSIFYING
AND HAS BEEN NAMED AT 17Z BY THE NWS OF MAURITIUS.=

Meow · 2015-4-7 19:48

半天不見變得如此面目猙獰:L

t02436 · 2015-4-7 21:45

JTWC 12Z 評價 80節

MFR 06Z 升強烈熱帶風暴
12Z 評價60KT
持續上望巔峰110KT

** WTIO30 FMEE 071302 ***

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/13/20142015
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (JOALANE)

2.A POSITION 2015/04/07 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.3 S / 62.7 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL
SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/04/08 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 62.6 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2015/04/08 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 62.6 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2015/04/09 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 62.7 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2015/04/09 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 62.8 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2015/04/10 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 63.5 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2015/04/10 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 64.3 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/04/11 12 UTC: 21.6 S / 65.6 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2015/04/12 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 65.6 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.0+
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CLEARLY IMPROVED DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS.
AN BANDING EYE APPEARED AT 1030Z.
THE DT AT 12Z IS 4.5.
THE FINAL T IS 4.0 ACCORDING TO THE DVORAK CONSTRAINTS.

JOALANE SEEMS TO INITIATE ITS SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT AS FORCASTED, AND IS
ABOUT TO ACHIEVE ITS CLOCKWISE LOOP.

THE MOVEMENT OF JOALANE SHOULD REMAIN RATHER SLOW FOR THE NETX
24/36H, DUE TO A MID LEVEL RIDGE IN ITS SOUTH.
FROM THURSDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONNED RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN AND A COL
SHOULD TAKE ITS PLACE, AND THE SYSTEM 13 SHOULD MOVE MORE CLEARLY
SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE IN ITS EAST. ON SATURDAY, IT SHOULD ADOPT A SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST
TRACK.

OVER THIS FORCASTED TRACK, GLOBALLY SOUTHWARD, JOALANE IS EXPECTED TO
ENCOUNTER GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
THE OHC IS SUFFICIENT UP TO ABOUT 21S.
THE SYSTEM IS GOING TO SHIFT UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.
TOMORROW WEDNESDAY, A UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL SHOULD TAKE PLACE
POLEWARD. THIS CHANNEL SHOULD BE EFFICIENT UP TO FRIDAY 10 OR
SATURDAY 11. ON SUNDAY 12, THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL VWS IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE.

JOALANE IS ALSO A SERIOUS THREAT FOR RODRIGUES ISLAND.=

底層大致構建完成
等待高層清空

Meow · 2015-4-8 02:59

看起來差不多，可是法國就認為上升 20 節，成為 80 節的熱帶氣旋了。路徑較偏離羅德里格斯，但強度上望強烈熱帶氣旋上限……

WTIO30 FMEE 071838
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/13/20142015
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOALANE)
2.A POSITION 2015/04/07 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.6 S / 63.1 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 1.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 976 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :43 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 160 SW: 160 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : UNKNOWN
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/04/08 06 UTC: 15.3 S / 63.5 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2015/04/08 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 63.7 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2015/04/09 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 63.9 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2015/04/09 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 64.4 E, MAX WIND=115 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2015/04/10 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 65.2 E, MAX WIND=115 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2015/04/10 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 66.0 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/04/11 18 UTC: 23.3 S / 67.6 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2015/04/12 18 UTC: 27.4 S / 67.4 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=5.0- AND CI=5.0+
JOALANE HAS CLEARLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
IT SHOWS HOWEVER SINCE 1700Z AN ELONGATED AND RATHER RAGGED EYE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENSION HAS BEEN REDUCED THANKS TO 1737Z ASCAT SWATH AND MSLP HAS BEEN THE
REFORE RE-CALCULATED.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEPS ON TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24/36H IN REL
ATIONSHIP WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXISTING IN ITS SOUTH.
THIS AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY WEAKEN AS A COL TAKE ITS PLACE.
JOALANE SHOULD THEN PROGRESSIVELY ACCELERATE SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS THEN SOUTHWARDS FROM SATURDAY.
ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP ON IMPROVING AS THE SYSTEM I
S SHIFTING UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.
TOMORROW WEDNESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL SHOULD TAKE PLACE POLEWARD AND SHOULD BE EFFICI
ENT UP TO FRIDAY.
FROM FRIDAY LATE OR SATURDAY EARLY, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT EXPERIENCE THE DOUBLE CONST
RAINTS OF STRENGTHENING NORTH-WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND MARGINAL HEAT OCEANIC CONTENT SOUTH
OF 21S.
JOALANE KEEPS ON REPRESENTING A SERIOUS THREAT FOR RODRIGUES ISLAND.

蜜露 · 2015-4-8 11:57

GFS MFR JTWC看好這隻發展
JTWC上望140kts ...

不過經過昨晚 ,他的開眼方式很冒險..
跟前4個Cat.5相比 , 這隻發展可能會不如預期

t02436 · 2015-4-8 20:53

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2015-4-9 00:03 編輯

JTWC 0407-18Z UTC報上望過140Kts
0408-03Z UTC報降為120Kts

MFR 持續上望強烈熱帶氣旋

ZCZC 890
WTIO30 FMEE 081231
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/13/20142015
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE  13  (JOALANE)
2.A POSITION 2015/04/08 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.1 S / 64.7 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL
SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 972 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 460 SW: 200 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 180 SE: 200 SW: 170 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SW: 90 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 2000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/04/09 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 65.2 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2015/04/09 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 65.6 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2015/04/10 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 66.2 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2015/04/10 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 67.4 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2015/04/11 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 68.5 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2015/04/11 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 69.0 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/04/12 12 UTC: 28.4 S / 69.0 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2015/04/13 12 UTC: 29.9 S / 68.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=4.5 AND CI=4.5+
JOALANE HAS RESTARTED A ESATERN, THEN SOUTHEASTERN MOTION. AN EYE IS
AGAIN VISIBLE ON CLASSICAL IMAGERY, AND LAST MICRO-WAVES DATA OF
10H36Z SHOW AN ISOLATED CDO SURROUNDED BY A FRAGMENTED NEW BAND WHICH
SEEM TO  CLOSE INTO A SECONDARY WALL
AFTER THE WEAKENING OF LAST NIGHT, THE SYSTEM WHICH HAS TROUBLE FOR
THE MOMENT TO RE-INTENSIFY, DESPITE OF  VERY FAVOURABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, SHOULD AS IT GOES ON ITS MOTION A GOOD
SPEED FIND AN AREA OF FAVOURABLE ENERGETICAL POTENTIAL.
AS SOUTHWARD MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS GOING TO DISSIPATE, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
THEREFORE SHIFT SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS BACK TOWARDS A COL.
A NEW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS REBUILDING IN ITS SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY
AND SHOULD STEERED JOALANE SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARDS.
BACK IN MOTION, JOALANE IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY.
ATMOSPHERICS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP FAVOURABLE UNTIL
FRIDAY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WITH WEAK VWS AND AN UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL POLEWARD.
FROM FRIDAY LATE OR SATURDAY EARLY, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS
IT EXPERIENCES THE DOUBLE CONSTRAINTS OF STRENGTHENING
NORTH-WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND MARGINAL HEAT OCEANIC CONTENT
SOUTH OF 21S.
LAST DETERMINISTIC'S NWP MODELS (ECMWF, GFS, UKMO) ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS SCENARIO.
JOALANE KEEPS HOWEVER ON REPRESENTING A THREAT FOR RODRIGUES ISLAND.=
NNNN

Meow · 2015-4-8 21:31

Aqua 拍攝的 Joalane

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wi ... 015-04-08_0930Z.jpg

krichard2011 · 2015-4-9 12:24

目前看起來乾空氣的影響相當嚴重
底層對流受損嚴重因此最近幾暴MFR調弱了 Joalane的強度
並不再上望ITC 但就算如此 MFR 仍認為能達到二次巔峰 80 KT

WTIO30 FMEE 090020
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/13/20142015
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (JOALANE)
2.A POSITION 2015/04/09 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 65.3 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 977 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 460 SW: 200 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 180 SE: 200 SW: 170 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : UNKNOWN

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/04/09 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 65.9 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2015/04/10 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 66.4 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2015/04/10 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 67.5 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2015/04/11 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 68.7 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2015/04/11 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 69.6 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2015/04/12 00 UTC: 26.3 S / 69.6 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/04/13 00 UTC: 29.0 S / 70.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2015/04/14 00 UTC: 30.8 S / 72.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=4.0 AND CI=4.5-