15E.Odile 貫穿下加利福尼亞半島進入美國

krichard2011 · 2014-9-14 23:31

感覺有置換可能會成功
內眼牆似乎快崩了...
而外眼牆卻相當鞏固完整

krichard2011 · 2014-9-15 09:26

難得置換還挺成功的
眼看卻快撞到陸地了= =

Meow · 2014-9-15 12:37

應該會是史上第三個登陸下加利福尼亞半島的強颶風（major hurricane）。

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 150303
TCDEP5

HURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL    EP152014
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

CORRECTED STATUS FROM EXTRATROPICAL TO REMNANT LOW AT 120 HOURS

Geostationary and microwave imagery indicate that the inner eyewall
of the hurricane has dissipated, leaving only an outer eyewall at a
radius of about 25 n mi.  This broadening of the inner-core wind
field normally corresponds to some weakening, but, given the
uncertainties, the current intensity is held at 110 kt.  This is
somewhat lower than the subjective and objective Dvorak estimates.
Since the center will be moving over or at least very near land
shortly, it is unlikely that the eyewall will have time to contract
and complete the eyewall replacement cycle.  Weakening is expected
to commence by early Monday.  The amount of weakening over the next
several days depends on how much the circulation interacts with the
Baja California Peninsula.  On the latest NHC forecast track, the
center is expected to remain over land for much of the period.
Therefore, the official intensity forecast is significantly lower
than the previous one.

The motion has been to the right and somewhat faster than earlier
today.  Therefore the official track forecast has been adjusted
accordingly.  This is close to a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF
solutions.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, as
strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center of
Odile.  In addition, moisture from a disturbance over northeastern
Mexico and the Pacific ITCZ is forecast to be advected by Odile's
circulation northwestward across Mexico into the southwestern United
States by early next week. This could result in heavy rains and
life-threatening flash flooding in those areas.  Please see
information from your local weather office for more details.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0300Z 22.6N 109.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
12H  15/1200Z 24.0N 110.9W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND
24H  16/0000Z 25.4N 112.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
36H  16/1200Z 26.7N 113.0W 75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND
48H  17/0000Z 27.7N 113.8W 60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
72H  18/0000Z 28.7N 114.3W 40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
96H  19/0000Z 29.8N 113.6W 30 KT  35 MPH
120H  20/0000Z 30.5N 113.0W 25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

typhoonman · 2014-9-15 12:59

應該是東太平洋中首個路徑登陸後與加利福尼亞半島平行的颶風，強度似乎減弱幅度會不大些。

krichard2011 · 2014-9-15 13:33

NHC 認定稍早登陸CABO SAN LUCAS附近
000
WTPZ65 KNHC 150459
TCUEP5

HURRICANE ODILE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
1000 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

...ODILE MAKES LANDFALL NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF ODILE MADE LANDFALL
AT ABOUT 945 PM PDT...0445 UTC...NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO. THE
ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF ODILE AT LANDFALL WAS 125 MPH...205 KM/H...
CATEGORY THREE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.

AN AUTOMATED OBSERVING STATION NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS RECENTLY
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 89 MPH...144 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 116
MPH...187 KM/H. THE STATION HAS ALSO REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF
959 MB... 28.32 INCHES.

A WEATHER STATION NEAR SANTA ROSA MEXICO HAS RECENTLY REPORTED A
WIND GUST TO 87 MPH...140 KM/H.

SUMMARY OF 945 PM PDT...0445 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 109.8W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.47 INCHES

Meow · 2014-9-15 13:46

iCyclone 團隊下榻的飯店入口，即便堆積家具山都無法阻擋 Odile 的強風，硬是吹壞入口並把家具往後推。

當地已停電，現在飯店的燈光依賴發電機。

Meow · 2014-9-15 14:12

查了過去的有效紀錄，只有 1967 年的 Olivia 和 1989 年的 Kiko 以 MH 登陸，而這次 Odile 的登陸風速和氣壓均超越那兩個颶風，因此可確認 Odile 是有效紀錄以來登陸下加利福尼亞半島的最強颶風。

Meow · 2014-9-15 14:33

iCyclone 下榻的飯店大廳，稍早玻璃突然爆裂，碎玻璃四散。iCyclone 有人的大腿被玻璃割傷流血，攝影師下落不明，目前飯店陷入混亂。

Midnight. CODE RED. At 11:46 pm, the backside of the eyeall hit-- no buildup-- just all of a sudden the howling and banging started up again. The hotel manager joked that it sounds like gunshots. Then at maybe midnight... BOOM!!!!! The entire glass wall of the lobby EXPLODED-- with glass, pieces of building, everything flying to the other end of the lobby. Like an explosion in an action movie. A hotel worked and I ducked under the reception counter-- I physically grabbed his head and pushed it under the counter. Glass was everywhere-- my leg gashed-- blood. We crawled into the office-- me, the worker, and the manager-- but the ceiling started to lift up. After five minutes of debate-- breathing hard like three trapped animals-- we made a run for it-- went running like HELL across the lobby-- which is now basically just OUTSIDE-- and made it to the stairwell and an interior hallway. Two nice women dressed my wound. I don't know where my cameradude, Steven, is. I need to find him. People are scared.