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krichard2011|2014-9-9 09:06
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本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2014-9-9 10:32 編輯
螺旋性已漸漸明顯
不過底層仍有待整合
NHC提高評級至HIGH
環境不錯 數值也看好發展...
1. An area of low pressure is gradually becoming better organized a
few hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental
conditions are forecast to support additional development, and the
low is likely to become a tropical depression in the next couple of
days while it moves slowly northwestward just off the southwestern
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
在補上一張 JTWC 的 TCFA
REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 98.9W,
APPROXIMATELY 275 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. RECENT
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH VIGOROUS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. A
090017Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
PROVIDING A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE RIDGE CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WITH GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.
DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
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