krichard2011

強度出來了 一下子衝到Cat.4 115 KT@@
算是猛爆增強 等到風眼真的打開之後
強度應該會相當可觀 環流對流完整一圈CMG
風眼溫度大致也升到LG了
CIMSS 剛剛RawT 更是一度達到 7.4 不過T值尚沒有反應
Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
    4.6         4.6         7.4

EP, 13, 2014082406,   , BEST,   0, 160N, 1094W, 115,  953, HU,  64, NEQ,   40,   30,   20,   30, 1008,  280,  15,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,      MARIE, D,

krichard2011

風眼正式清空
目前看起來應該是個針眼
眼溫也升到OW
最近的CIMSS ADT Raw T 也大致穩定在7以上 甚至一度達7.5 7.6
且分析為 EYE T值也升到5.8
從剛剛的掃描可以看到 她的CDO相當扎實 風眼也很犀利
NHC上看 Cat.4 上限 不排除真的有挑戰 Cat.5 的實力

2014AUG24 081500  4.9  966.1  87.4  4.9 5.8 7.5  1.3T/6hr  OFF  OFF  -24.16 -78.41  EYE    -99 IR  28.3   15.92  110.13  SPRL   GOES13 44.1

HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
200 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014

Marie continues to rapidly intensify.  The eye of the hurricane has
become much more distinct in recent satellite images, and very cold
cloud tops surround the center.  The inner core convective pattern
is also quite symmetric, and a large curved band exists well to the
south of the center.  The initial wind speed estimate is 115 kt, a
category 4 hurricane, which is based on a Dvorak classification of
T6.0 from SAB.

The large scale conditions of low wind shear, high moisture, and
warm sea surface temperatures should favor additional strengthening
during the next day or so.  However, it should be noted that with
major hurricanes like Marie, intensity fluctuations are common due
to internal dynamics, or eyewall replacement cycles, that are not
easily forecast.  The hurricane is expected to begin weakening in a
couple of days when there will likely be some decrease in moisture
and sea surface temperatures gradually lower.  A more rapid
weakening is predicted toward the end of the forecast period when
Marie is forecast to move over water temperatures lower than 26
degrees Celsius.  The NHC intensity forecast is raised from the
previous one, given the observed strengthening, but shows a similar
trend.

The intense hurricane is moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt on
the southwestern periphery of a deep layer ridge.  The track
forecast is fairly straight forward.  A west-northwest to northwest
motion is predicted during the next 5 days as ridging to the north
of Marie remains the primary steering mechanism.  The NHC track
forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies close to
the multi-model consensus.

A partial ASCAT pass indicated that the wind field of Marie has
expanded significantly, and the wind radii have been adjusted
accordingly.  Although Marie is expected to remain well off the
coast of Mexico, very large swells will continue to affect
southwestern Mexico through tomorrow.  These swells, which are
likely to cause dangerous life-threatening surf, are forecast to
spread northward along the Baja California coast during the next few
days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0900Z 16.1N 109.9W  115 KT 135 MPH
12H  24/1800Z 16.6N 111.5W  125 KT 145 MPH
24H  25/0600Z 17.3N 113.2W  135 KT 155 MPH
36H  25/1800Z 18.4N 114.9W  130 KT 150 MPH
48H  26/0600Z 19.8N 116.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
72H  27/0600Z 22.4N 120.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
96H  28/0600Z 25.0N 126.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  29/0600Z 28.0N 130.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

krichard2011

現在應該算是清空得差不多了
她現在這樣子讓我有點期待稍後的可見光
應該會很美 CMG 完整一圈
估計稍後NHC應該有機會給到125KT以上的強度...

krichard2011

風眼已經清空到眼溫達到WMG了
配上周圍完整一圈的CMG
不排除 晚上NHC 這報會給出135 KT
或著直上Cat.5 應該也不是沒有機會...
CIMSS ADT 分析出的Raw T 真的是有夠驚人 7.7 @@
Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
    5.8        5.9         7.7

t02436

EP, 13, 2014082412,   , BEST,   0, 161N, 1108W, 130,  929, HU,  34, NEQ,  220,  180,  150,  150, 1008,  400,  15,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,      MARIE, D,
EP, 13, 2014082412,   , BEST,   0, 161N, 1108W, 130,  929, HU,  50, NEQ,   90,   90,   60,   60, 1008,  400,  15,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,      MARIE, D,
EP, 13, 2014082412,   , BEST,   0, 161N, 1108W, 130,  929, HU,  64, NEQ,   40,   30,   20,   30, 1008,  400,  15,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,      MARIE, D,

12Z速報給130KT
看15Z正報還會不會再調~

krichard2011

這隻結構相當扎實完整風眼清晰可見
不過可能因為對流日夜變化的關係
剛剛完整一環的CMG已經沒剛剛那麼完整
爆發增強可能暫時告一段落...
不過免強還是成環 結構上仍算是相當完美
根據NHC預測 位來24小時左右的路徑 環境還算不錯
OHC也尚支持發展 南方有豐沛水氣補充
如果沒有意外的話 明天應該還會有一波增強空間
部分模式也預測這個系統有機會增強至Cat.5 以上的等級
強度方面可以再觀察... 順便附上早晨第一張可見光衛星雲圖



水氣支持


風切微弱...

OHC 115W 以東 大致支持

krichard2011

再來一張完整的可見光衛星雲圖
話說剛剛掃到得這個底層 真的是有夠強悍
但是也很難想像 他的核心從中心算起只跨了不到一個緯度
換算下來半徑約只有不到100 KM = =
從衛星雲圖根本看不出來他的核心居然只有這麼小 @@

krichard2011

NHC 最新一報 強度一樣 130 KT
不過上望 C5 如成真 這個將是東太4年來第一個 C5 @@
東太上一個 Cat.5 以經要追溯到四年前的 Celia颶風

Marie's eye has cleared out and warmed during the past few hours,
with very cold convective tops surrounding the center.  As a
result, TAFB and SAB measured data T-numbers of 7.0/140 kt, but both
were constrained by Dvorak rules and settled on final-T estimates of
T6.5/127 kt.  Also, a UW-CIMSS intensity estimate from a 0938 AMSU
pass was 126 kt.  Based on these data, Marie's initial intensity is
raised to 130 kt.

The 12-hour motion estimate is 285/13 kt, although Marie has
actually been moving more westward during the past few hours.  The
hurricane is located to the south of a mid-level ridge which
extends from Texas to the northern Baja peninsula, and this feature
should propel Marie basically west-northwestward during the next 3-4
days.  Thereafter, Marie will be located between strengthening
ridging over northwestern Mexico and a weakness in the ridge
leftover by Post-Tropical Cyclone Lowell, and it should begin to
turn north-northwestward by day 5.  There is very little spread
among the track guidance, and the updated NHC forecast essentially
lies between the previous forecast and the TVCE multi-model
consensus, which has shifted a bit to the right beyond day 2.

Intensity fluctuations are always possible once hurricanes like
Marie get this strong.  Assuming unforeseen internal dynamics and/or
an eyewall replacement do not take over soon, the environment
around Marie should be able to support a little more strengthening
during the next 12-24 hours.  Thereafter, slow weakening is likely
until about day 3 when Marie will begin weakening more quickly over
waters colder than 26C and in a more stable air mass.  The new NHC
intensity forecast shows a slightly higher peak intensity to
account for the recent strengthening rate, but otherwise no
significant changes were required.

Although Marie is expected to remain well off the coast of Mexico,
very large swells will affect southwestern Mexico through tomorrow
and much of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula
during the next few days.  These swells will cause dangerous
life-threatening surf and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 16.0N 111.4W  130 KT 150 MPH
12H  25/0000Z 16.5N 112.9W  140 KT 160 MPH
24H  25/1200Z 17.6N 114.5W  135 KT 155 MPH
36H  26/0000Z 18.9N 116.2W  130 KT 150 MPH
48H  26/1200Z 20.3N 117.9W  115 KT 135 MPH
72H  27/1200Z 22.5N 122.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
96H  28/1200Z 25.5N 127.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  29/1200Z 28.5N 131.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL