13E.Marie 東太時隔四年C5再現

t02436 · 2014-8-20 07:48

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-9-1 12:06 編輯

  五級颶風
  編號：13 E
  名稱：Marie

  基本資料
   擾動編號日期：2014 年 08 月 20 日 07 時
　  命名日期　　：2014 年 08 月 22 日 17 時
   消散日期　　：2014 年 09 月 01 日 08 時
   登陸地點　　：無

　近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
　  國家颶風中心 (NHC)　  　：  140 kts  (  CAT.5  )
　  海平面最低氣壓　　　　：  918  百帕

  過去路徑圖

  討論帖圖片
92E.INVEST-20kts-1009mb-7.9N-93.2W

以上資料來自 : NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

蜜露 · 2014-8-20 19:02

數值大部分看好這隻發展,且看好MH強度.

如果說Lowell 像娜克莉

這隻可能就像未來的哈隆.

GFS預測往後174+ 小時以後的此強度. . 不差的預測強度

Lowell會不會影響92E (就像娜克莉一開始殘虐哈隆那個方式) 還要觀察..

Lowell會先和11E 卡琳那藤原. 往後92E就要注意了

EC也看好這隻發展

t02436 · 2014-8-21 09:56

NHC升評High
JTWC隨後也發布TCFA

1. A large low pressure system located several hundred miles south of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec is moving west-northwestward at about 10
mph. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in coverage and
organization during the past several hours, and environmental
conditions are becoming more conducive for a tropical depression to
form during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 94.6W,
APPROXIMATELY 400 NM SOUTH OF SALINA CRUZ, MEXICO. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING YET BROAD
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 202240Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATES
FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A
MORE DEFINED LLCC. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE UPPER-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS)
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE DYNAMIC
MODELS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

目前對流鬆散
前方風切微弱
東太今年度生成數量可望先暫時超越西太~

t02436 · 2014-8-22 10:54

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-8-22 12:25 編輯

升格13E
暫時上望95KT
初步看來是不會太弱的…

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 12.4N  99.0W 30 KT  35 MPH
12H  22/1200Z 13.1N 100.9W 40 KT  45 MPH
24H  23/0000Z 13.9N 103.2W 50 KT  60 MPH
36H  23/1200Z 14.7N 105.1W 60 KT  70 MPH
48H  24/0000Z 15.3N 106.7W 70 KT  80 MPH
72H  25/0000Z 16.9N 109.7W 80 KT  90 MPH
96H  26/0000Z 19.0N 113.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H  27/0000Z 20.9N 117.3W 95 KT 110 MPH

t02436 · 2014-8-22 14:46

FNMOC搶先掛出MARIE名字
東太三旋完全擊敗西太...

數值對路徑趨向一致

強度預測有一個飆到C4...

補充:
NHC數據庫也出來了

EP, 13, 2014082206, , BEST, 0, 126N, 1003W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 40, 1012, 200, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MARIE, M,

t02436 · 2014-8-22 17:10

NHC首報直接給出40KT
不僅調高巔峰強度至105KT
而且認為24小時後就會達到颶風(C1)

ASCAT passes at 0338 UTC and 0430 UTC indicated that the cyclone
was producing winds of 35 kt in a small area to the north of the
center.  Since that time, the convective pattern has become
significantly better organized, and it is estimated that the system
is now a 40-kt tropical storm.  Earlier microwave data indicated
that Marie has a well-defined low-level ring, which can often be a
precursor to rapid intensification if environmental conditions are
favorable.  With waters near 30 degrees Celsius, high levels of
atmospheric moisture, and favorable upper-level diffluence, it
appears that RI is a definite possibility, and Marie could become a
hurricane in about 24 hours.  Environmental conditions are
expected to remain conducive for strengthening for much of the
forecast period, and in fact, the global models indicate significant
deepening of the cyclone through about day 4 before Marie reaches
cooler waters.  The statistical-dynamical models are also
incredibly aggressive, with the SHIPS model making Marie a category
4 hurricane in 4 days.  The NHC intensity forecast is roughly
between the SHIPS and LGEM models, which are the highest of the
guidance.  This is higher than the previous forecast, and it now
explicitly shows Marie becoming a major hurricane later in the
forecast period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 12.8N 101.0W 40 KT  45 MPH
12H  22/1800Z 13.2N 103.0W 50 KT  60 MPH
24H  23/0600Z 14.0N 105.0W 65 KT  75 MPH
36H  23/1800Z 14.7N 106.8W 75 KT  85 MPH
48H  24/0600Z 15.4N 108.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H  25/0600Z 17.0N 112.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H  26/0600Z 19.0N 115.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  27/0600Z 21.5N 119.5W 95 KT 110 MPH

Meow · 2014-8-22 17:11

東北太平洋三旋共舞，歷史罕見，KLM 排排站！

（不含中太平洋北部）

krichard2011 · 2014-8-22 17:13

NHC 目前上看Cat.3
環境相當不錯強度應該還有的衝....

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 12.8N 101.0W 40 KT  45 MPH
12H  22/1800Z 13.2N 103.0W 50 KT  60 MPH
24H  23/0600Z 14.0N 105.0W 65 KT  75 MPH
36H  23/1800Z 14.7N 106.8W 75 KT  85 MPH
48H  24/0600Z 15.4N 108.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H  25/0600Z 17.0N 112.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H  26/0600Z 19.0N 115.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  27/0600Z 21.5N 119.5W 95 KT 110 MPH