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美國不編號的原因只剩一個：副熱帶氣旋
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 122.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 126.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 130 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AIR BASE. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE, OBLONG AREA OF
DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 110138Z METOP-B IMAGE,
HOWEVER, SHOWS A SMALL CLUSTER OF INTENSE CONVECTION, WHICH IS
DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF A WEAKLY-DEFINED LLCC. A
110138Z ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE WITH 35 TO 45 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE,
DIRECTLY UNDER THE INTENSE CONVECTION. DETAILED ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THIS SYSTEM IS SUBTROPICAL IN NATURE AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
DIVERGENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LOCATED OVER THE LEADING EDGE OF A
BROAD MIDLATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE REGION. OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS, WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO HIGH
LEVELS NEAR 30 KNOTS. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY INTERACTING WITH THE
BAIU BOUNDARY AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT NOT CONDUCIVE TO TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER,
THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM AS
IT TRANSITS SOUTH OF OKINAWA AND MAINLAND JAPAN. WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS, THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME ABSORBED IN THE BAIU
(BAROCLINIC) BOUNDARY AND CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. BASED ON
THE SUBTROPICAL NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM. |
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