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桜slime|2014-6-10 13:49
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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 121.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 122.3E, APPROXIMATELY 185 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ISHIGAKIJIMA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. A 092344Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATES FORMATIVE, WEAK BANDING DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. A 100104Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS AND STRONGER FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM, ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING. MSI AND ASCAT IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE, WHICH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN TAIWAN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED JUST POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER-LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, THE DYNAMIC MODELS ARE NOT INITIALIZING THE CIRCULATION ACCURATELY. HOWEVER, THE MODEL FIELDS INDICATE A TWO TO THREE DAY PERIOD OF POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE SYSTEM BECOMES ABSORBED IN THE BAIYU BOUNDARY SOUTH OF KYUSHU. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. BASED ON THE STRENGTH AND SYMMETRY OF THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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