92B 深入內陸逐漸減弱中

t02436 · 2014-5-23 10:58

取消TCFA 降評Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 91.6E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 91.0E, APPROXIMATELY 370 NM SOUTH OF
CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS PATCHY DEEP CONVECTION FLARING AND DISSIPATING OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN
A 222238Z SSMIS PASS. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER
THE PAST TWELVE HOURS IN RESPONSE TO PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
INDUCED BY THE PERIPHERAL FLOW AROUND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, RENDERING THE FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THAT TIME FRAME UNLIKELY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW
220730) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. BASED ON THE OBSERVED WEAKENING TREND
AND CONSIDERING THE POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT IF VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR RELAXES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM.

對流還是沒辦法有效整合

krichard2011 · 2014-5-23 16:24

強對流被切離了...
目前中心有裸露的狀況
發展上有待加強

you · 2014-5-24 19:28

krichard2011 · 2014-5-24 20:49

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2014-5-24 20:50 編輯

其實它的狀況一直都不是很好
從底層掃瞄來看
現在連它的整體環流都快要看不出來了
雖然從衛星雲圖來看對流看起來還不錯
不過整體沒有什麼組織可言...
如此發展不佳可能與附近的風切較強有關

t02436 · 2014-5-26 07:29

降評Low
中心已經登陸基本上難以發展

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.3N
86.3EIMATELE, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 84.4E, APPROXIMATELY 65 NM
SOUTHWEST OF BRAHMAPUR, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST INDIAN COAST. THE EIR ANIMATION ALSO SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION DEEPENED WITH IMPROVED BANDING PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THIS
SPIKE IN INTENSIFICATION WAS CAPTURED ON A 251523Z SCATTEROMETRY
PASS THAT SHOWED ELEVATED WINDS OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN-FLAGGED WIND
BARBS. BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETRY DATA, MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. IN VIEW OF THE SYSTEM MAKING LANDFALL
WITH VERY MINIMAL CHANCE OF RECURVING BACK OVER WATER, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

t02436 · 2014-5-26 17:22

取消評級

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.7N
84.4E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.