krichard2011

  低壓   
     編號：BOB 02 (  92 B  )
     名稱：無

  基本資料  
    擾動編號日期：2014 年 05 月 19 日 15  時
　消散日期　　：2014 年 05 月 27 日 09  時
　登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
　近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
    美國海軍 (JTWC)：       30       kts  ( Tropical Disturbance )
     印度氣象局(IMD)：       25       kts  (         Depression          )
    海平面最低氣壓  ：      1000    百帕
  過去路徑圖  
暫無
  討論帖圖片
92B.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-13.2N-91.4E


以上資料來自 : JTWC、IMD、颱風論壇整理製作

krichard2011

Re: 甜心
噢...不喔 92B 附近的水氣可是相當豐沛的喔...
我們這邊的水氣也大致也是被它與副高給帶上來的
目前它所要克服的應該是風切的問題...
這隻本質上應該算是個季風低壓
整合也有難度 目前數值也不看好發展

t02436

評級Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.1N 91.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 117 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERN ANDANAM ISLANDS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 200418Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED
CONVECTIVE BANDING BROADLY WRAPPING INTO THE ILL-DEFINED LLCC. A
200321Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS 15 TO 20 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WITH WEAKER 05 TO 10 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LIMITED OUTFLOW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

you

Re: 甜心 92B低氣壓其實算是一隻大傢伙需要很多時間整合

季風低壓其覆蓋範圍一般較大，閉合等壓線的直徑可達 1000 公里,因此92B不算大
季風低壓最大風速的區域一般位於其外圍。92B開始整合起來,不至出現這個現象

krichard2011

跟昨天相比 結構明顯好轉
底層大致可以看到對流有爆發的跡象
不過環境方面 除了水氣沒有什麼大問題之外
風切還是偏強 短期來看發展的機會應該不是很大

t02436

升評Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.1N
91.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 91.1E, APPROXIMATELY 145 NM
NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERN ANDANAM ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
A SLOWLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
201119Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC.
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS
LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND LIMITED OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO IMPROVED CONVECTION AND ORGANIZATION, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

t02436

JTWC發TCFA

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.8N
91.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 91.4E, APPROXIMATELY 375 NM SOUTH
OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 210454Z METOP-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN ORGANIZING SYSTEM WITH THE BULK OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC.
A 210357Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 35 TO 40
KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT WITH WEAKER WINDS (15 TO 20
KNOT) OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATES IN
THE AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERARE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (20 KNOTS) OFFSET BY GOOD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO INCREASED
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL SIGNATURE AND IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

t02436

另外IMD也在剛剛升格BOB02

Time of issue: 1130 hours IST Dated: 21.05.2014
Bulletin No.: BOB02/2014/01
Sub: Depression over eastcentral Bay of Bengal
Latest satellite imagery and observations indicate that a depression has formed
over eastcentral Bay of Bengal and lay centred at 0830 hours IST of today, the 21st May 2014 near
latitude 15.50 N and longitude 90.50 E, about 490 km north-northwest of Port Blair, 620 km westsouthwest
of Yangon (Myanmar) and 680 km south-southwest of Cox’s Bazar (Bangladesh). It may
intensify further into a deep depression during next 24 hrs. It would move near northwards for
some time and then north-northeastwards towards Myanmar and adjoining Bangladesh coast
during next 48 hrs.
Under the influence of this system, rainfall would occur at most places with isolated heavy
to very heavy falls over Andaman and Nicobar Islands during next 24 hrs and isolated heavy
rainfall thereafter.
Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would prevail along and
off Andaman and Nicobar Islands during next 48 hrs. Sea condition would be rough to very rough
along and off Andaman and Nicobar Islands during the same period.
Fishermen along and off Andaman and Nicobar Islands are advised not to venture into
sea during next 48 hours.
The next bulletin will be issued at 1430 hrs IST of today, the 21st May, 2014.

http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/cyclone_pdfs/indian_1400672770.pdf