04W 環境不佳發展暫受限

Meow · 2014-3-23 04:00

降至 20 節，發佈最後警報。

WTPN31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 9.4N 125.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 9.4N 125.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 8.9N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 8.2N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 9.3N 124.6E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 04W (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
NORTHEAST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY
LOOP FROM CEBU AND HINATUAN (COURTESY OF DOST) INDICATES THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY SHALLOWED AND SHEARED
WESTWARD OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION, BASED ON THE LLCC, HAS BECOME MORE RAGGED AND ILL-DEFINED
SINCE IT DRAGGED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIP OF MINDANAO. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WAS DEDUCED FROM THE 221500Z PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE AND
SUPPORTED BY THE 221800Z DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM RJTD. TD 04W IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SULU SEA AND DISSIPATE BY
TAU 12 DUE TO FRICTIONAL AND MOISTURE-HINDERING EFFECTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PHILIPPINE ISLANDS IN ADDITION TO ITS EXPOSURE TO THE
RELATIVELY DRIER NORTHEAST MONSOON WINDS. NUMERIC MODELS ARE IN
OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THIS ASSESSMENT. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 10 FEET. //
NNNN

複製代碼

甜心 · 2014-3-23 18:32

04w 熱低壓今天結構依然不是很對稱甚至受地形影響中心還有點裸奔，不過南方的環流有些小暴發它本身整個系統目前正在侵襲菲律賓南部並逐漸往西移動穿越陸地當中...。

t02436 · 2014-3-24 00:34

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-3-24 00:38 編輯

中心已經橫越菲國進入蘇祿海

對流衰弱底層殘破(趨近無)
JMA12Z維持TD...
風切中等
數值大部分都不看好發展
GFS預測南墜馬國沙巴
NCEP還有50%

Meow · 2014-3-24 15:26

JTWC 再度評級 LOW，不過看來發展希望渺茫。

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (THE REMNANTS OF TD 04W) HAS
PERSISTED NEAR 9.1N 119.4E, APPROXIMATELY 50 NM SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO
PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A POORLY DEFINED AND LOOSELY WRAPPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. A 240353Z
TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A POOR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH AN ILL-
DEFINED LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS EQUATORWARD
OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH SLIGHTLY DIVERGENT OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (15
TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRACKING THE
REMNANTS INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH NO DEVELOPMENT. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.