04W 環境不佳發展暫受限

zjk369 · 2014-3-22 01:03

夜間對流明顯，中心點凸出，即將生成

t02436 · 2014-3-22 01:05

西環壓境東環東退
短期看來不是滯留就是緩步西移

JMA+48預報中心剛上陸
個人認為明早就有機會發GW

krichard2011 · 2014-3-22 09:43

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2014-3-22 11:14 編輯

JTWC 稍早升格TD
不過JMA仍尚未發出GW...
JTWC後期強度不怎麼看好
甚至預測似乎連個TS都達不到
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 9.4N 126.9E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.4N 126.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 9.5N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 9.5N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 9.0N 123.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 8.6N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

補上路徑圖強度看衰依然....

Meow · 2014-3-22 12:04

這次 JMA 相對保守了，應該是沒分析到 CI1.5。

TPPN10 PGTW 220323

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (NE OF MINDANAO)

B. 22/0232Z

C. 9.2N

D. 127.0E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .30 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. PT
AGREES; MET WAS N/A. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
21/2318Z 9.2N 127.1E SSMS

LONG

甜心 · 2014-3-22 17:48

04w升格熱低嚕而且今天我們的中央氣象局也同步給它升格唷不過是乎不太看好它的強度，從雲圖看起來今天發展的還不錯雲團集結有比較扎實雖然左右結構是乎還不太對稱。

t02436 · 2014-3-22 19:17

小J一改之前急躁發GW風格
除非今晚能出乎意料改善
不然應該是暫時不會發布了

部分對流已經甩進菲國南部

JMA下午定位已經非常靠近陸地
從德法分析圖來看稍晚中心就會上陸

老J第二報仍看衰發展
等進入南海再看看吧...

J18 · 2014-3-22 21:38

All Public storm warning signals elsewhere are now lowered.

With this development and unless re-intensification occurs, this is the final bulletin on this weather disturbance.

Eastern Visayas and Caraga will continue to have cloudy skies with moderate to occasionally heavy rains and thunderstorms which may trigger flashfloods and landslides.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Luzon and of Visayas

(5 p.m. Weather Bulletin)
菲律賓認定他減弱為低壓區!